‘Black Mirror’ will win Netflix its first Emmy for Best TV Movie, getting leading odds of 4/7 for the episode ‘San Junipero’

Black Mirror” is a British anthology series that tells a new story in each episode about the dark side of technology. It was picked up by Netflix for its third season, which premiered in 2016, and now it has had an Emmy breakthrough, earning three nominations including Best TV Movie for its episode “San Junipero.” Submitting a single episode for consideration as a standalone film is a strategy that worked well for “Sherlock,” which won this race for “The Abominable Bride” last year, and now it looks like it will pay off for “Black Mirror” as well. It leads our predictions with odds of 4/7, which translates to a 63% chance of winning.

These official racetrack odds are based on the latest predictions of Expert TV journalists, Gold Derby’s own Editors, the Top 24 Users who got the high scores in last year’s Emmy predictions, the All-Star Top 24 who scored high in the last two years’ combined Emmy predix, and thousands of total Users who are our largest and often smartest predictions bloc.

This would be the first victory in this category for a streaming program, and it would be the first top program award of any kind for Netflix — though they could also win Best Comedy Series (“Master of None” or “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”) and Best Drama Series (“The Crown,” “House of Cards,” or “Stranger Things”) in the same night. “San Junipero” is a love story between two young women (Mackenzie Davis and Gugu Mbatha-Raw) set in 1987. Its only other nomination is for Charlie Brooker‘s writing, but this is the only TV Movie nominee with a writing or directing nomination, which could help it.

But this could be a deceptively close race. None of the five nominees in this category received a lot of support from the TV academy, and none of them won Creative Arts Emmys, so it’s hard to know for sure which way the wind is blowing. But defending champ “Sherlock” is back in the race looking for a repeat victory with its episode “The Lying Detective.” It ranks second in our predictions with 9/2 odds, or a 17% chance of winning. And voters might be especially inclined to reward it again since “Sherlock” may not return, so this could be the last chance to honor it.

Another possibly upset could come from “The Wizard of Lies,” which ranks third with 6/1 odds, or a 15% chance of winning. Before nominations were announced it seemed like a likely winner, but despite its pedigree (including direction by Oscar winner Barry Levinson), it only received four nominations, including acting bids for Robert De Niro and Michelle Pfeiffer and another for Best Movie/Mini Casting.

The remaining two contenders are unlikely to win as this is their only nomination: “The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks” has 28/1 odds (3.5% chance of winning), and “Christmas of Many Colors” trails with 80/1 odds (1.2% chance of winning).

Be sure to make your Emmy predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our Emmy odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on September 17. And join in the fierce debate over the 2017 Emmys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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