Watch out for Emmy upset: ‘Black Mirror’ is a dark horse for Best TV Movie, say our All-Stars

HBO’s “The Wizard of Lies” is the frontrunner to win Best TV Movie according to every prediction group at Gold Derby: our Experts polled from various top media outlets, our Editors who cover awards year-round, our Top 24 Users who got the best prediction scores at last year’s Emmy nominations, our All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ Emmy nominations, and our thousands of everyday Users who make up our largest and often savviest bloc of predictors. But could we be underestimating “Black Mirror” from Emmy upstart Netflix? The streaming service is a potential dark horse contender according to our All-Stars.

Our All-Star Top 24 were the most consistent when predicting the Emmy nominations over 2015 and 2016, so their prediction carry particular weight, and four of them betting on “Black Mirror,” which will be entering one episode for consideration in this category: “San Junipero,” about a romance between two young women (Gugu Mbatha-Raw and Mackenzie Davis) in 1987. The sci-fi series explores different stories and themes  in each episode, focused around the impact of modern technology. This would be the second nomination in this category for the streaming service, following its breakthrough nom last year for “A Very Murray Christmas.”

Another three All-Stars predict a repeat victory for PBS Masterpiece’s “Sherlock.” Emmy voters picked “Sherlock: The Abominable Bride” last year. The series is competing again this year with its episode “The Lying Detective,” and history shows that we shouldn’t underestimate it: to date, the modern-day detective series, starring Benedict Cumberbatch in the title role, has won nine Emmys.

But “The Wizard of Lies” remains the show to beat with support from 15 of our 24 All-Stars. HBO has long been an awards juggernaut when it comes to telefilms, and this true-crime financial drama about con artist Bernie Madoff has a remarkable pedigree, directed by Oscar winner Barry Levinson and starring Oscar winner Robert De Niro, along with Oscar nominee Michelle Pfeiffer and Emmy winner Hank Azaria. And it premiered on May 20, which will keep it fresh in the minds of Emmy voters as they mark their ballots this summer.

Who will win Emmy for Best TV Movie?

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Predict the Emmy nominees now; change them until July 13

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