Emmy predictions: Ewan McGregor (‘Fargo’) will pull off an upset according to last year’s smartest user

It pays to consult our Top 24 Users when making your Emmy predictions. Those two dozen Gold Derby readers got the highest scores out of nearly 2,000 people who predicted the nominations last summer. So who do they think will win the close race for Best Movie/Mini Actor between Riz Ahmed (“The Night Of”) and Robert De Niro (“The Wizard of Lies”)? Maybe neither. According to our user Perfectly Weird, the prize will go to Ewan McGregor (“Fargo”). And why does that matter? Because Perfectly Weird got the number-one score predicting last year’s nominations.

Perfectly Weird was one of only three users who scored 76% accurate predictions in 2016, but he got the highest overall score since he had the most favorable odds when he locked in his predictions and thus scored the most game points. Now he’s one of five top users predicting a victory for a dark horse McGregor, who plays dual roles as twin brothers Emmit Stussy and Ray Stussy in FX’s anthology series. Emmy voters love actors playing multiple roles — consider Toni Collette and her alternate personalities in “United States of Tara” (Best Comedy Actress, 2009) or Tatiana Maslany and her myriad clones in “Orphan Black” (Best Drama Actress, 2016). Also, “Fargo” is already a proven winner, claiming five Emmys for its first two seasons, including Best Limited Series in 2014. And McGregor has been on the TV academy’s radar before, earning a bid for Best Drama Guest Actor for “ER” (1997). But “Fargo” has yet to win an acting award despite eight nominations.

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However, according to more than half of our Top 24 — 13 to be exact — Ahmed will take the prize for the HBO crime drama. This would be his first nomination and win, but he’s a rising star with a bright future who is also known for roles in the films “Nightcrawler” and “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.” The TV academy could choose this as the time to anoint the up-and-comer after his recent nominations and losses at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards.

Another four users predict De Niro, who ticks a lot of the right boxes for Emmy voters. He’s an Oscar winning movie star playing a biographical role: seven of the last nine winners in this category played real people, and seven of the last 10 were Academy Award nominees or winners. Also, like Ahmed, De Niro represents HBO, which has long been a heavyweight in longform categories at the Emmys, winning this category five times in the last 10 years.

Our last two top users are predicting Ahmed’s “Night Of” co-star John Turturro. He has only been nominated once before at the Emmys, but the first time was the charm: he won Best Comedy Guest Actor for “Monk.” And guess what — one of those predicting Turturro is dsps84, who tied Perfectly Weird last year with 76% accuracy. So there’s not one, but two upsets to watch for in this category.

Predict the Emmy nominees now; change them until July 13

Be sure to make your Emmy predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our Emmy odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on July 13. And join in the fierce debate over the 2017 Emmys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums.

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