The Emmy for Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actress looks like a close race according to most of our prediction groups at Gold Derby. They’re mostly split between Judy Davis (“Feud: Bette and Joan”) and Laura Dern (“Big Little Lies”): Our Experts from top media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s nominations, All-Star Top 24 who got the best scores when you combine the last two years’ nominations, and thousands of everyday Users who make up our biggest bloc of predictors. The collective consensus is that Davis is out front, but one of our very best users is predicting that it will be Dern.
Three users tied with a top score of 76% when predicting last year’s nominations. One of them was dsps84, and now he’s one of six of our Top 24 Users who are predicting Dern to prevail. She might be an appealing choice to Emmy voters because she plays a prominent, emotionally showy role in “Big Little Lies”: protective and combative working mother Renata Klein. Emmy voters may also wish to make up for the fact that Dern has never won before despite five nominations in the last 25 years. It also helps Dern’s case that “Big Little Lies” was written by David E. Kelley, whose TV shows have won literally dozens of acting Emmys over the years.
But Davis remains the frontrunner with support from 15 of the Top 24. History shows that it’s wise not to underestimate Davis. She has been nominated 11 times, winning three: Best Movie/Mini Actress for “Life with Judy Garland: Me and My Shadows” (2001) and Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actress for “Serving in Silence: The Margarethe Cammermeyer Story” (1995) and “The Starter Wife” (2007). She plays a real-life, larger-than-life personality in the FX’s “Feud”: infamous gossip columnist Hedda Hopper, who is alternately an ally of Joan Crawford (Jessica Lange) and a thorn in her side.
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Perhaps surprisingly, only one of our Top 24 Users is predicting Regina King (“American Crime”), who has won this award for the last two years in a row. “Crime” was cancelled this year after its third season, which explored the subject of human trafficking and the exploitation of labor. King had arguably her biggest role in the series to date as Kimara Walters, an embattled social worker who deals with exploited youth and is eager to start a family of her own.
Another previous winner in this category has support from one top user: Kathy Bates (“American Horror Story: Roanoke”). She’s a longtime Emmy favorite with 14 past nominations and two wins, including a victory in this race for a previous season of “American Horror Story,” “Coven” (2014).
One last top user predicts a victory for Michelle Pfeiffer (“The Wizard of Lies). She plays Ruth Madoff, the wife of corrupt Wall Street financier Bernie Madoff (Robert De Niro) who learns her husband swindled billions of dollars from investors. Pfeiffer is primarily known for her work on the big screen, so she has never been nominated for an Emmy, but she’s a three-time Oscar nominee, and Emmy voters love to honor respected movie stars who make the move to TV.
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