The Emmys contest for Best Comedy Series is a two-way race according to our Top 24 Users, the two dozen Gold Derby users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s nominations. But even though it’s not unanimous, “Veep” is the decisive frontrunner with support from 20 out of 24 of these elite Emmy pundits.
Emmy voters love repeat winners. In fact, in the last 10 years of Best Comedy Series, only three shows have won: “30 Rock” (2007-2009), “Modern Family” (2010-2014) and “Veep” (2015-2016). So it’s reasonable to believe that “Veep” will continue its winning streak uninterrupted. And on top of Emmy voters’ fondness for repeat winners, “Veep” could also get a boost from parallels to the absurd politics of the real world. Then again, “Veep” might seem tame compared to the actual political climate.
But the other four of our Top 24 Users are betting on the FX breakout series “Atlanta” starring Donald Glover. Emmy voters are often slow to embrace new shows, but there’s good reason to believe “Atlanta” will be an exception to that rule. Consider how well it did during the winter awards season. It won the Golden Globe for Best TV Comedy Series, which isn’t unusual since Globe voters can’t resist a cool new show. But then “Atlanta” swept through a number of key industry awards, winning Best Comedy Series from the Producers Guild and Writers Guild and earning a nomination from the Directors Guild. It was overlooked by the SAG Awards, but that’s rarely a fatal blow: the SAG Awards have been late to the party with other shows like “Homeland” and “Transparent” that nevertheless scored top Emmy nominations and wins for their first seasons.
None of our Top 24 are predicting any other shows to win, but they’re unanimous that ABC’s “Black-ish” will be nominated again. It earned its first nomination in this category last year for its second season, and since then the show has been steadily increasing its awards momentum, earning its first Golden Globe nom for Best Comedy Series and its first SAG Awards nom for Best Comedy Ensemble. If it prevails it certainly wouldn’t be the first time it took Emmy voters a few years to catch on to a show — just look at “Veep,” which didn’t win until season four.
All of our Top 24 also predict a nomination for “Silicon Valley.” The HBO tech-industry comedy was one of the most nominated laffers last year with nine bids, and it has increased its nominations total every single year so far.
Along with “Veep,” “Black-ish” and “Silicon Valley,” the other four returning Comedy Series nominees from last year are also eligible to return, but how many of them will get back in with newcomer “Atlanta” widely expected to grab a slot? All but one of our Top 24 are predicting a third consecutive nomination for Amazon’s dramedy “Transparent,” which had 10 nominations last year and has won Best Comedy Actor twice in a row for star Jeffrey Tambor.
Twenty of our Top 24 say Netflix’s “Master of None” will return after breaking through for its first season last year. Another 19 top users are betting on a return nomination for a second Netflix show, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt,” which has been nominated for the last two years. “Master of None” premiered its new season on May 12, and “Kimmy Schmidt” followed on May 19, so both shows will be fresh in voters’ minds when they’re marking their ballots this month.
After years of “Modern Family” dominating the Emmys, only nine of our Top 24 are now predicting it to be nominated. It tied “Frasier’s” all-time record with five straight Comedy Series victories, and it has been nominated for all seven seasons it’s been eligible.
One of our Top 24 forecasts a nomination for another first-year show, HBO’s “Insecure.” The series was created by and stars Issa Rae, who earned a Golden Globe nom for her performance.
Be sure to make your Emmy predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our Emmy odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on July 13. And join in the fierce debate over the 2017 Emmys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums.