“La La Land” will win 10 Oscars on Sunday according to experts’ picks at Gold Derby. Damien Chazelle‘s musical charmer — which earned a record-tying 14 Oscar nominations and swept through the guild awards — has the backing of 28 of our 29 Oscar experts. That support gives it leading odds of 2/11 to win Best Picture at the Oscars on Feb. 26.
The experts also predict that Chazelle will become the youngest-ever winner of Best Director and that his film will also claim the prizes for actress (Emma Stone), cinematography, costume design, film editing, production design, score, song and sound mixing. Those 10 wins will tie it with another tuner, “West Side Story,” which went 10 for 11 in 1961. Three films –“Ben-Hur” (1959), “Titanic” (1997) and “Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003) — have each claimed a record 11 Oscars.
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The experts are sharply divided over Best Actor with 15 of them predicting a win for SAG Awards champ Denzel Washington (“Fences”) while 14 favor a victory by BAFTA pick Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”). That one-vote edge gives Washington, who was snubbed by the BAFTAs, odds of 1/1 to take home his third Oscar while Affleck is a hair behind at 6/5.
The 15 experts backing Washington are: Eric Deggans (NPR), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Tim Gray (Variety), Dave Karger (IMDB), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo!), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com).
Oscars: Every Best Picture Winner in Academy History (Photo Gallery)
And the 14 in Affleck’s corner are: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere).
Even if Washington loses, his co-star Viola Davis is all but certain to win Best Supporting Actress. This Emmy and Tony champ has the votes of all 29 of our experts, which translate into overwhelming odds of 1/10. Far back in second place is three-time Oscar also-ran Michelle Williams (“Manchester by the Sea”) with odds of 40/1.
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Likewise, if Affleck is defeated, his film’s director Kenneth Lonergan is tipped to take home an Oscar for his original screenplay. This playwright turned filmmaker is ahead of Chazelle who did double duty as well by a margin of 25 to 4 among the experts.
“Moonlight” is strongly favored by our experts to claim two Oscars: Best Supporting Actor for Mahershala Ali and Adapted Screenplay for director Barry Jenkins and playwright Tarell Alvin McCraney.
UPDATED: Oscar odds in all 24 categories
Below are the experts’ odds in the top eight Oscar categories. See more.
BEST PICTURE
“La La Land” – 2/11
“Moonlight” – 18/1
“Hidden Figures” – 50/1
“Manchester by the Sea” – 50/1
“Arrival” -80/1
“Hacksaw Ridge” – 80/1
“Lion” -80/1
“Fences” – 100/1
“Hell or High Water” – 100/1
BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land” – 2/13
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight” – 10/1
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea” – 50/1
Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival” – 66/1
Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge” – 80/1
BEST ACTOR
Denzel Washington, “Fences” – 1/1
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea” – 6/5
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land” – 50/1
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge” – 66/1
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic” – 80/1
BEST ACTRESS
Emma Stone, “La La Land” – 2/7
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle” – 11/2
Natalie Portman, “Jackie” – 18/1
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 66/1
Ruth Negga, “Loving” – 80/1
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight” – 1/5
Dev Patel, “Lion” – 11/1
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water” – 18/1
Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals” – 66/1
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea” – 66/1
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, “Fences” – 1/10
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea” – 40/1
Naomie Harris, “Moonlight” – 50/1
Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures” – 66/1
Nicole Kidman, “Lion” – 80/1
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Moonlight” – 1/10
“Arrival” – 18/1
“Hidden Figures” – 50/1
“Fences” – 50/1
“Lion” – 66/1
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Manchester by the Sea” – 2/7
“La La Land” – 9/2
“Hell or High Water” – 50/1
“The Lobster” – 66/1
“20th Century Women” – 66/1
Predict the Oscar winners now; change them till February 26
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before winners are announced on February 26 at 5:00 pm PT/8:00 pm ET. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.
