On paper, a horror comedy released in February like “Get Out” would not look like an awards contender. But the hit film from writer/director Jordan Peele has really resonated with critics and audiences, especially with its social commentary on race relations in America. So far it has earned award nominations from the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, and SAG Awards. With all its momentum still rising late in the year, can “Get Out” really win the Oscar for Best Picture? It may suffer from the lack of Golden Globe nominations in two key categories it’s hard to win the top Oscar without.
“Get Out” received two Globe bids: Best Film Comedy/Musical and Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor (Daniel Kaluuya). The film is currently in second place with 11/2 odds to win the top category (behind “Lady Bird,” which leads with 2/7 odds), but can it pull off a Best Picture win at the Oscars despite Peele being snubbed by the Hollywood Foreign Press for both Best Film Director and Best Film Screenplay?
It’s been a long time since a film has won the top Oscar without a Golden Globe nomination for writing or directing. The last film to have done so was “Driving Miss Daisy,” which also won the Globe for Best Comedy/Musical back in 1990. The only other awards that film was up for there (which it also won) were the lead-acting categories for Morgan Freeman and Jessica Tandy.
Since then, four films that earned nominations for writing or directing, but not both, still went on to win the Oscar for Best Picture: “Gladiator” (2000, nominated for directing but not writing), “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003, won for directing, not nominated for writing), “Million Dollar Baby” (2004, won for directing, not nominated for writing), and “Crash” (2005, nominated for writing but not directing). Every Best Picture champion at the Oscars since “The Departed” (2006) has received both nominations at the Golden Globes — that’s an 11-year streak, and possibly a good sign for “The Post,” “The Shape of Water,” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” the only three films that contend for both writing and directing this year.
However, the Hollywood Foreign Press does not have any voters in common with the academy, and the Globes also differ in that they only have one screenplay category, as opposed to the Oscars which have separate writing awards for adapted and original scripts. So the connection between these two Globe race and the top Oscar may not hold up under all circumstances, but it’s a statistic that we’d be foolish to discount.
Be sure to make your Golden Globe predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on January 7. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Golden Globes taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.