Golden Globe film predictions slugfest: ‘Darkest Hour’ vs. ‘Dunkirk’ for Best Film Drama? [VIDEO AND PODCAST]

“This is a fascinating category,” says Gold Derby editor Chris Beachum when he discussed the Golden Globes race for Best Film Drama with Daniel Montgomery and Paul Sheehan (watch above, or listen to the podcast version below). “Right now I’m thinking ‘Darkest Hour’ [will win] … If it had been the old days of the Oscars — meaning four years ago and back — I think it might have been the kind of movie they would rally around, something that’s World War II and very historically based and a performance [by Gary Oldman] that’s probably going to win [Best Film Drama Actor].”

The Golden Globes often like to anticipate the Oscars, and several years ago “Darkest Hour” would have been exactly the kind of prestige drama the academy would have gone with, but things have changed with the academy. A preferential ballot now decides Best Picture, and there’s an expanded and more diverse academy membership. “[The Globe for Best Film Drama has] gone three-for-eight in the new era where there’s an expanded Best Picture race at the Oscars, including last year with ‘Moonlight,'” Sheehan notes. And the Globes also got it right with one of their Best Film Comedy/Musical winners, “The Artist” (2011), so Sheehan is playing the odds: “We’ve got ‘Dunkirk’ winning Best Picture at the Oscars, and it’s far out front, so I’m going with ‘Dunkirk’ at the Globes.”

“Darkest Hour” and “Dunkirk” are similar of course in that they both address some of the same events during World War II — “Dunkirk” is set on the battlefield, while “Darkest Hour” is set in the halls of government in London. Both are also similar in that they’re from filmmakers who have been recognized by the Globes but under-recognized by the Oscars.

“Darkest Hour” is helmed by Joe Wright, who was nominated for a Globe for Best Director for “Atonement,” but even though “Atonement” (2007) earned an Oscar nom for Best Picture, Wright was left off the academy’s Best Director list. Similarly, “Dunkirk” director Christopher Nolan earned a Globes directing bid for “Inception” (2010) but the academy has never nominated him as a director. Now may be the chance for both of them to be redeemed at the Oscars, and their first stop may be Best Film Drama at the Golden Globes.

Be sure to make your Golden Globe predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on December 11. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Golden Globes taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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