Golden Globes predictions by experts: Oscar frontrunner ‘Dunkirk’ ahead for Best Drama, ‘The Post’ gaining

Five of our 12 Golden Globe experts derived from major media outlets are predicting that the Oscar frontrunner, “Dunkirk,” will win Best Drama at these precursor prizes. Another three are backing “The Post” while two favor “Call Me By Your Name.” “Mudbound” and “The Shape of Water” each have one vote.

“Mudbound” debuted at Sundance, “Dunkirk” was a huge hit this summer and both “Call Me By Your Name” and “The Shape of Water” wowed festival crowds in recent weeks. “The Post” has yet to screen.

Of the 64 winners of Best Drama at the Golden Globes, exactly half went on to take home the top prize at the Oscars. However, since the academy expanded the Best Picture race in 2009, just three of the eight winners of that award had previously prevailed on the drama side at the Golden Globes, including last year’s double champ “Moonlight.”

See how our experts rank Golden Globe contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Golden Globe Best Drama predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the top eight contenders to win (all other films have odds of 100/1):

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1. “Dunkirk”: Five experts (3/1 odds)
Joyce Eng (TV Guide)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)
Susan Wloszczyna (

2. “Call Me By Your Name”: Two experts (4/1 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Edward Douglas (Tracking Board)

3. “The Shape of Water”: One expert (9/2 odds)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)

4. “The Post”: Three experts (11/2 odds)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)

5. “Darkest Hour”: (11/1 odds)

6. “Mudbound”: One expert (20/1 odds)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)

7. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: (25/1 odds)

8. “Phantom Thread”: (66/1 odds)

Be sure to make your Golden Globe predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on December 11. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Golden Globes taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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