Indie Spirit Awards predictions: ‘Moonlight’ will sweep; Casey Affleck, Natalie Portman to take acting honors

Moonlight” will be the big winner at the Indie Spirit Awards this Saturday, winning four prizes including Best Picture according to the official racetrack odds at Gold Derby. With all of our experts, along with our in-house editors and most of our readers are backing its bid, this character study has leading odds of 1/10. That puts it far in front of “Manchester by the Sea” (25/1 odds) and “Jackie” (50/1). However, the stars of those films, Casey Affleck and Natalie Portman, are expected to win the top acting awards at the 32nd annual edition of these awards that take place the day before the Oscars.

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With the “Moonlight” cast to be feted with the Robert Altman award, don’t look for Mahershala Ali‘s name among our predicted winners list (though he is widely expected to take home the Oscar on Sunday). Instead, rival Oscar nominee Lucas Hedges (“Manchester by the Sea”) is forecast to win that prize here. There are no Oscar contenders up for Best Supporting Actress, which is predicted to go to Lily Gladstone (“Certain Women”).

“Moonlight” is also expected to win Best Director (Barry Jenkins) as well as cinematography and editing. And while Oscar nominee Kenneth Lonergan was snubbed here for his helming of “Manchester by the Sea,” he is predicted to take home this screenplay award.

Indie Spirit Awards nominations 2017:
Full list led by ‘American Honey,’ ‘Moonlight,’ ‘Manchester by the Sea,’ ‘Jackie’

Below are the odds in the top four Indie Spirt Awards categories. See more

“Moonlight” – 1/10
“Manchester by the Sea” – 25/1
“Jackie” – 50/1
“American Honey” – 66/1
“Chronic” – 100/1

Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight” – 1/10
Pablo Larraín, “Jackie” – 33/1
Andrea Arnold, “American Honey” – 50/1
Jeff Nichols, “Loving” – 50/1
Kelly Reichardt, “Certain Women” – 100/1

Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea” – 2/13
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic” – 11/1
Jesse Plemons, “Other People”  – 50/1
Tim Roth, “Chronic” – 66/1
David Harewood, “Free In Deed”  – 80/1

Natalie Portman, “Jackie” – 8/13
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle” – 11/5
Ruth Negga, “Loving” – 33/1
Annette Bening, “20th Century Women” – 50/1
Sasha Lane, “American Honey” – 80/1

Predict the Indie Spirit winners now; change them till Feb. 25

Be sure to make your Indie Spirit predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before winners are announced on February 25. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Indie Spirits taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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