Kendrick Lamar will sweep the MTV VMAs with 5 awards, leaving little for anyone else

Kendrick Lamar goes into Sunday night’s MTV Video Music Awards with the most nominations (eight), and he’ll also leave with the most awards. That’s according to our official racetrack odds, which are based on the combined predictions of hundreds of Gold Derby users, including the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s VMA winners, the All-Star Top 24 who got the high scores when you combine the last two years’ predictions, and the Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby.

We’re forecasting five victories for Lamar: Video of the Year, Best Hip-Hop Video, Best Direction, Best Cinematography, and Best Visual Effects, all for “Humble.” The only races he’s expected to lose are Artist of the Year, Best Art Direction, and Best Choreography.

That doesn’t leave much for anyone else. True, there are 10 other categories where Lamar isn’t the frontrunner, but we don’t expect any other artist to win more than one award apiece. Artist of the Year will go to Ariana Grande in that award’s inaugural year. Best Collaboration will be awarded to “Wild Thoughts” by DJ Khaled, Rihanna, and Bryson Tiller. Best Pop Video will be won for the first time by Ed Sheeran (“Shape of You”). The Best Rock Video victor will be Twenty One Pilots for the second straight year for “Heavydirtysoul.” The Best Dance Video is projected to be “Stay” by Zedd and Alessia Cara. And the Best Fight Against the System will be “Immigrants (We Get the Job Done),” a commentary against nationalism and xenophobia from the “Hamilton Mixtape.”

Khalid will be named Best New Artist in addition to performing on the show. Beyond that, Lamar will grab half of the six professional categories that are decided by experts instead of by fans voting online, but the other three will go to Bruno Mars (Best Art Direction, “24K Magic”), Sia (Best Choreography, “The Greatest”), and Lorde (Best Editing, “Green Light”).

Do you agree with out VMA predictions? If not, there’s still time to make or edit your predictions before the prizes are handed out on Sunday, August 27. Visit our predictions center now to let us know what you think.

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