With 2/13 odds from our 15 film experts, Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”) is predicted to win Best Film Supporting Actor at Sunday’s Screen Actors Guild Awards. Ali plays Juan, a drug dealer and surrogate father to a young man struggling to find his place in the world while growing up in a rough Miami neighborhood in Barry Jenkins‘ coming-of-age drama. The film has three total nominations including Best Film Ensemble at the 2017 SAG Awards airing live Sunday on TNT and TBS.
Fourteen of our 15 experts from major media outlets are predicting that Ali will win his first SAG Award: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
The other lone expert, Tariq Khan (Fox News), is banking on an upset victory for Dev Patel (“Lion”), resulting in 12/1 odds to win. Patel plays Saroo Brierley, an Indian boy living in Australia who seeks out the family he was separated from in Calcutta 25 years ago in this biographical drama from Garth Davis. This would be his first individual SAG win, though he previously prevailed as part of the ensemble cast of “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008).
Jeff Bridges (“Hell or High Water”) comes in third place with 40/1 odds to win. Bridges plays Marcus Hamilton, a Texas ranger hunting down two brothers on a bank robbing spree in David Mackenzie‘s tightly wound thriller. He previously won Best Actor at SAG for “Crazy Heart” (2009).
In fourth place is Lucas Hedges (“Manchester by the Sea”) with odds of 50/1. Hedges plays Patrick, a young man who finds himself in his uncle’s care when his father dies in Kenneth Lonergan‘s domestic drama. This is the young actor’s first SAG nomination.
Rounding out the nominees, Hugh Grant (“Florence Foster Jenkins”) has 100/1 odds. Grant plays St. Clair Bayfield, a Shakespearean actor who helps his wife pursue a singing career, despite her horrible voice, in Stephen Frears‘ light comedy. He has no prior individual SAG bids, though he was nominated along with the ensemble cast of “Sense and Sensibility” (1995)
Ali is also the pick to win if you look at the overall combined racetrack odds derived from the predictions of the Experts, Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s SAG winners, the All-Star Top 24 who got the top scores when you combine the last two years’ ceremonies and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors. Ali has over 1,600 combined predictions with 2/13 odds, followed by Patel in second place with 18/1 odds. Bridges follows with 33/1 odds, and then Hedges at 50/1 odds and Grant at 80/1 odds.
Winning this award from the Screen Actors Guild is of great significance when it comes to forecasting the upcoming Oscars. Since the SAG Awards began in 1994, a total of 13 out of 22 Best Supporting Actor SAG winners later prevailed at the Oscars in the same category. The nine exceptions are Ed Harris (“Apollo 13” in 1994), Robert Duvall (“A Civil Action” in 1998), Albert Finney (“Erin Brockovich” in 2000), Ian McKellen (“The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring” in 2001), Christopher Walken (“Catch Me If You Can” in 2002), Paul Giamatti (“Cinderella Man” in 2005), Eddie Murphy (“Dreamgirls” in 2006), Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln” in 2012) and Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation” in 2015).
Make your SAG picks and tell industry insiders which shows, films and performers you have out front to win on January 29. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before the show time. Be sure to make your predictions right here. You’ll compete for a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s nominees). Read our contest rules.