‘Moonlight’ is the Oscar frontrunner for Best Adapted Screenplay with 1-to-10 odds from Experts

With 1/10 odds from our 29 movie Experts, “Moonlight” is predicted to win Best Adapted Screenplay at Sunday’s Academy Awards. “Moonlight” scribes Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, who just won for their original screenplay at the Writers Guild Awards, must contend at the Oscars in the adapted category as their script was ruled to be an adaptation of an unproduced play by McCraney. The 2017 Oscars air live Sunday on ABC, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel. Watch our fun webchat with Jenkins right here.

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Twenty-eight of our 29 Experts are predicting a “Moonlight” victory for Best Adapted Screenplay: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Eric Deggans (NPR), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Tim Gray (Variety), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (HuffPo), Dave Karger (IMDb), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Glenn Whipp (LA Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).

In second place is “Arrival” with 18/1 odds based on the support of one expert: Erik Davis (Fandango). Written by Eric Heisserer and based on the Ted Chiang story “Story of Your Life,” this film won Best Adapted Screenplay at the Writers Guild Awards last weekend.

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There is a two-way tie for third place with 50/1 apiece between the screenplays for “Hidden Figures” and “Fences.” The former is written by Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi, based on the book by Margot Lee Shetterly. And the “Fences” screenplay is written by the late August Wilson, based upon his own play.

Rounding out the group of adapted screenplays at 66/1 odds is “Lion.” It’s a bit startling to see this film so far down our experts’ rankings considering that it just won the BAFTA Award in this same category. The script is written by Luke Davies, based on the book “A Long Way Home” by Saroo Brierley.

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According to our overall combined odds featuring the predictions of all Experts, Editors, Top 24 Users (those who did the best at their winner picks last year), All-Star Top 24 (who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ Oscars) and All Users, the rankings are nearly the same. The favored pick of more than 3,000 people is “Moonlight” with 2/13 odds over “Arrival” in second place with 14/1 odds. “Hidden Figures” follows with 33/1 odds, and then “Fences” at 50/1 and “Lion” at 66/1.

Last year’s Oscar champ for Best Adapted Screenplay was “The Big Short,” written by Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, based on the book by Michael Lewis. What will join it in the Oscar winner’s circle this year?

Predict the Oscar winners now; change them till February 26

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before winners are announced on February 26 at 5:00 pm PT/8:00 pm ET. And join in the fierce debate over the 2017 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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