MTV VMA predictions: Twenty One Pilots will cap off breakthrough year with 2nd Moonman for Best Rock Video

It’s been a breakthrough year for Twenty One Pilots. The alternative rock duo first broke through at the MTV Video Music Awards in 2013, when they contended for the Artist to Watch award for “Holding On to You.” They lost to teen heartthrob Austin Mahone, but Twenty One Pilots have gotten the last laugh. Mahone hasn’t made much of a impact on the music industry since then, while Pilots are forecast to win their second straight VMA for Best Rock Video following a year of award-winning success.

As of this writing Twenty One Pilots get leading odds of 1/1 to win for their video “Heavydirtysoul” (watch above). That’s based on support from 18 of our Top 24 Users, who got the highest scores predicting last year’s winners, and 17 of our All-Star Top 24, who got the highest scores when you combined the last two years’ VMA predictions. However, only one out of our three Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round agrees. Twenty One Pilots also won this award last year for “Heathens,” which launched a season in which they also claimed two American Music Awards, five Billboard Music Awards, and a Grammy.

Two of Pilots’ VMA rivals from 2016 are back in the running, including Coldplay (“A Head Full of Dreams”). The Chris Martin-fronted band may have lost their head-to-head match-up last year, but they previously won this category in 2012 for “Paradise,” and they have earned four nominations here to date. They rank second with odds of 14/5 based on support from two out of three Editors, four of our Top 24 Users, and three All-Stars.

Foo Fighters are next with 4/1 odds for “Run.” The veteran band led by Dave Grohl are nominated for the sixth time in this category spanning 20 years. They’ve only won it once before — for “Walk” in 2011 — but that was their most recent nomination, so perhaps they’re getting better and more popular with age. One of our Top 24 Users, and one of our All-Stars is predicting them to upset.

Another veteran band is tied with 4/1 odds: Green Day. Their nomination for “Bang Bang” this year is the fifth of their career, going back to 1995. They previously won in 2005 for “Boulevard of Broken Dreams” and in 2009 or “21 Guns,” so they have the best track record of any artist in this year’s race. They’re backed by one of our Top 24 and one All-Star.

Rounding out the category with odds of 9/2 are Fall Out Boy (“Young and Menace”). It may be surprising that they’re such underdogs in this contest considering that they’re six-time nominees and they won this award right before Twenty One Pilots, for “Uma Thurman” in 2015. But none of our Editors or top users are forecasting a return victory for the group.

What do you think? There’s still time to make or edit your predictions before the winners are announced on Sunday, August 27.

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