New York Film Critics’ Circle Awards: What do results mean for 2018 Oscars?

Will the winners of the New York Film Critics’ Circle awards parlay those victories into Oscars or at least nominations? Based on an analysis of the most 16 years of these kudos, almost all of the NYFCC picks can expect to hear their names called when Academy Awards nominations are announced on Jan. 23, 2018. As to whether they will win on March 4, 2018 remains less certain.

In the last 16 years, ony four of the NYFCC Best Picture winners have gone on to take the top Oscar: “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2004), “No Country for Old Men” (2008), “The Hurt Locker” (2010), and “The Artist” (2012). Twice in this time, the NYFCC pick did not even reap a Best Picture bid and both those films were directed by Todd Haynes: “Far from Heaven” (2003); and “Carol” (2016).

The seven directors that won with both groups were: Steven Soderbergh (“Traffic,” 2001), Clint Eastwood (“Million Dollar Baby,” 2005), Ang Lee (“Brokeback Mountain,” 2006), Martin Scorsese (“The Departed,” 2007), Joel and Ethan Coen (“No Country for Old Men,” 2008), Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker,” 2010) and Michel Hazanavicius (“The Artist,” 2012).

SEE New York Film Critics’ Circle Awards 2017: Full list of winners

The half dozen leading men winning with both groups were Forest Whitaker (“The Last King of Scotland,” 2007),  Daniel Day-Lewis (“There Will Be Blood,” 2008), Sean Penn (“Milk,” 2009), Colin Firth (“The King’s Speech,” 2011) Day-Lewis (“Lincoln,” 2013) and Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea,” 2017). And six of the other 11 NYFCC winners reaped Oscar bids.

Only four women have taken home both this award and the Oscar since the turn of the century: Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line,” 2006), Helen Mirren (“The Queen,” 2007), Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady,” 2012) and Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine,” 2014). And 10 of the other 13 NYFCC winners contended at the Oscars.

SEE New York Film Critics Circle Awards 2017 winners report

The seven featured fellows to win with both groups were: Benicio Del Toro (“Traffic, 2001), Javier Bardem (“No Country for Old Men,” 2008), Christoph Waltz (“Inglorious Basterds,” 2010), Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club,” 2014), J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash,” 2015), Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies,” 2016) and Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight,” 2017). Five of the other 10 critics picks went on to Oscar nominations.

Six of these winners also took home Oscars: Marcia Gay Harden (“Pollock,” 2001), Jennifer Hudson (“Dreamgirls,” 2007), Penelope Cruz (“Vicky Cristina Barcelona,” 2009), Monique (“Precious,” 2010), Melissa Leo (“The Fighter,” 2011) and Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood,” 2015). Eight of the other 11 NYFCC winners also reaped Oscar bids.

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Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

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