Oscar predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay nominations for ‘Moonlight,’ ‘Arrival,’ ‘Fences’ & more

The Oscar race for Best Adapted Screenplay was shaken up in December when the academy decided that “Moonlight” would have to compete in this race, as opposed to the original screenplay category where it contends at the Writers Guild Awards. Due to the switcheroo, previous frontrunners “Arrival” and “Fences” dropped in our Best Adapted Screenplay charts as “Moonlight” rose. Besides these three, what are the other adapted screenplays that are predicted to earn Oscar nominations on Tuesday, January 24?

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These official racetrack odds below are derived from the predictions of Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the top scores when you combine the last two years’ nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.

“Moonlight”– 21/10 odds
“Arrival” — 4/1 odds
“Fences” — 5/1 odds
Lion” — 15/2 odds
Nocturnal Animals” — 16/1 odds
Spoiler: “Hidden Figures” — 16/1 odds

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The Experts strongly favor “Moonlight” for the win, with 21 out of 28 backing itThelma Adams (Gold Derby), Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Tim Gray (Variety), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Dave Karger (IMDb), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Ent.Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Nicole Sperling (Ent. Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and Adnan Virk (ESPN).

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The remaining seven Experts are split between two adapted screenplays: “Arrival” is backed by Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes) and Anne Thompson (IndieWire), while “Fences” is the choice for Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Glenn Whipp (LA Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).

Meanwhile, our Editors are nearly unanimous with six predicting an easy victory for “Moonlight”: Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, Daniel Montgomery, Matt Noble, O’Neil and Sheehan. The lone holdout is Rob Licuria, who thinks “Arrival” will prove victorious.

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The Top 24 Users strongly favor “Moonlight” as well, with 16 of those elite predictors giving it best odds. However, JasonOsia, who had the highest accuracy predicting last year’s Oscar nominations (83%), is forecasting “Arrival” for the win; he has “Moonlight” in third place.

Our All-Star users are also betting on “Moonlight” as the Best Adapted Screenplay frontrunner. Eighteen of them think it will prevail, while the others are split between “Arrival,” “Fences” and “Silence.”

Predict the Oscar nominations now; change them till January 24

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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