Even though “La La Land” won Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes earlier this month, many awards prognosticators still think something else might take it down at the Oscars. And that “something” may be the current Oscar frontrunner for Best Original Screenplay, “Manchester by the Sea.” In addition to those two films, what are the other three original screenplays that are predicted to earn Oscar nominations on Tuesday, January 24?
These official racetrack odds below are derived from the predictions of Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the top scores when you combine the last two years’ nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Manchester by the Sea”– 17/10 odds
“La La Land” — 7/2 odds
“Hell or High Water” — 11/2 odds
“The Lobster” — 12/1 odds
“Jackie” — 12/1 odds
Spoiler: “Captain Fantastic” — 18/1 odds
The Experts strongly favor “Manchester by the Sea” for the win, with 24 out of 28 backing it: Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Dave Karger (IMDb), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Ent.Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Nicole Sperling (Ent. Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Glenn Whipp (LA Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
The remaining four Experts are banking on an upset victory by the “La La Land” screenplay: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Tim Gray (Variety) and Jack Mathews (Gold Derby). Of the 10 previous musical films to win Best Picture at the Oscars, only three also won for their screenplays; will “La La Land” become the fourth?
Meanwhile, our Editors are unanimous with all seven predicting an easy victory for “Manchester by the Sea”: Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria, Daniel Montgomery, Matt Noble, O’Neil and Sheehan.
The Top 24 Users strongly favor “Manchester by the Sea” as well, with 19 of those elite predictors giving it best odds. That number includes JasonOsia, who had the highest accuracy predicting last year’s Oscar nominations (83%).
Our All-Star users are also betting on “Manchester by the Sea” as the Best Original Screenplay frontrunner. Nineteen of them think it will prevail, while the others are all opting for “La La Land.”
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.