Guild awards scorecard: ‘Arrival,’ ‘Hell or High Water,’ ‘La La Land’ & ‘Manchester by the Sea’ lead

As Oscar voting kicks off on Thursday (Jan. 5), we’ve heard from four of the guilds — actors, writers, art directors and film editors — as well as the casting directors with their nominees for the best of the year in their respective fields. Four films have reaped bids from this quintet of precursor prizes: “Arrival,” “Hell or High Water,” “La La Land” and “Manchester by the Sea.”

Not surprisingly, these four films all number among our top 10 Best Picture contenders, with “La La Land” in first far ahead of “Manchester by the Sea.” “Arrival” is ranked fifth by our experts while “Hell or High Water” is at #8. Among other leading contenders, third-ranked “Moonlight” earned nominations from all groups save the art directors while fifth-ranked “Fences” missed out on bids from the film editors and casting directors.

Related Photo Gallery: Top 15 Best Picture Oscar Contenders

We may be underestimating “Hidden Figures,” which just makes our top 10 as it numbers among the nominees with all groups except the film editors. Likewise for three-time contenders “Lion” and “Hacksaw Ridge,” which we have ranked at sixth and seventh respectively. Conversely, “Silence” has been shut out so far and may well slip from its current ranking of ninth place.

During the eight-day Oscar nominations voting period that ends next Friday (Jan. 13), we will hear from the producers, directors, cinematographers, costume designers, makeup artists & hairstylists, sound mixers and visual effects wizards. The sound editors don’t chime in till the end of the month.

Below, a breakdown by picture of guild nominations to date.

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SAG = Screen Actors Guild (report)
WGA = Writers Guild of America (report)
ACE = American Cinema Editors (report)
ADG = Art Directors Guild (report)
CSA = Casting Society of America (report)

Five Guilds

SAG – Actress (Amy Adams)
WGA – Adapted Screenplay (Eric Heisserer)
ACE – Drama (Joe Walker)
ADG – Fantasy Film (David Wasco)
CSA – Big Budget Drama (Francine Maisler; Lucie Robitaille – Location Casting)

“Hell or High Water”
SAG – Supporting Actor (Jeff Bridges)
WGA – Original Screenplay (Taylor Sheridan)
ACE – Drama (Jake Roberts)
ADG – Contemporary Film (Tom Duffield)
CSA – Studio or Independent Comedy/Musical (Richard Hicks, Jo Edna Boldin)

“La La Land”
SAG – Actor (Ryan Gosling), Actress (Emma Stone)
WGA – Original Screenplay (Damien Chazelle)
ACE – Comedy/Musical (Tom Cross)
ADG – Contemporary Film (David Wasco)
CSA – Big Budget Comedy/Musical (Deborah Aquila, Tricia Wood)

“Manchester by the Sea”
SAG – Ensemble, Actor (Casey Affleck), Supporting Actor (Lucas Hedges), Supporting Actress (Michelle Williams)
WGA – Original Screenplay (Kenneth Lonergan)
ACE -Drama (Jennifer Lame)
ADG – Contemporary Film (Ruth De Jong)
CSA – Studio or Independent Drama (Douglas Aibel; Carolyn Pickman – Location Casting)

UPDATED: Oscar predictions by experts in all 24 categories

Four Guilds

“Hidden Figures”
SAG – Ensemble, Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer)
WGA – Adapted Screenplay (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi)
ADG – Period Film (Wynn Thomas)
CSA – Big Budget Drama (Victoria Thomas; Jackie Burch – Location Casting)

SAG – Ensemble, Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali), Supporting Actress (Naomie Harris)
WGA – Original Screenplay (Barry Jenkins; story by Tarell McCraney)
ACE – Drama (Nat Sanders, Joi McMillon)
CSA – Low Budget Comedy or Drama (Yesi Ramirez)

“Nocturnal Animals”
SAG – Stunt Ensemble
WGA – Adapted Screenplay (Tom Ford)
ADG – Contemporary Film (Shane Valentino)
CSA – Big Budget Drama (Francine Maisler)

UPDATED: Oscar odds in all 24 categories 

Three Guilds

ACE -Comedy/Musical (Julian Clarke,)
WGA – Adapted Screenplay (Rhett Reese & Paul Wernick)
CSA – Big Budget Comedy (Ronna Kress; Jennifer Page – Location Casting)

SAG – Ensemble, Actor (Denzel Washington),  Supporting Actress (Viola Davis)
WGA – Adapted Screenplay (August Wilson)
ADG – Period Film (David Gropman)

“Hacksaw Ridge”
SAG – Actor (Andrew Garfield), Stunt Ensemble
ACE -Drama (John Gilbert)
ADG – Period Film (Barry Robison)

“Hail, Caesar”
ACE – Comedy/Musical (Roderick Jaynes)
ADG – Period Film (Jess Gonchor)
CSA – Big Budget Comedy (Ellen Chenoweth)

SAG – Actress (Natalie Portman)
ADG – Period Film (Jean Rabasse)
CSA – Studio or Independent Drama (Mary Vernieu, Lindsay Graham; Jessica Kelly – Location Casting)

SAG – Supporting Actor (Dev Patel), Supporting Actress (Nicole Kidman)
ADG – Contemporary Film (Chris Kennedy)
CSA – Studio or Independent Drama (Kirsty McGregor)

Find out what will win at the Oscars this year

Two Guilds

“Cafe Society”
ADG – Period Film (Santo Loquasto)
CSA – Studio or Independent Comedy (Juliet Taylor, Patricia DiCerto)

“Captain Fantastic”
SAG – Ensemble, Actor (Viggo Mortensen)
CSA – Studio or Independent Drama (Jeanne McCarthy; Angelique Midthunder – Location Casting)

“Doctor Strange”
SAG – Stunt Ensemble
ADG – Fantasy Film (Charles Wood)

“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
ADG – Fantasy Film (Stuart Craig)
CSA – Big Budget Drama (Fiona Weir; Jim Carnahan – Location Casting)

“The Girl on the Train”
SAG – Actress (Emily Blunt)
CSA – Big Budget Drama (Kerry Barden, Paul Schnee)

“The Jungle Book”
ACE – Comedy/Musical (Mark Livolsi)
CSA – Animation (Sarah Halley Finn)

WGA – Original Screenplay (Jeff Nichols)
CSA – Studio or Independent Drama (Francine Maisler; Erica Arvold – Location Casting)

ACE – Animation (Jeff Draheim)
CSA – Animation (Jamie Sparer Roberts; Rachel Sutton – Location Casting)

ACE – Animation (Fabienne Rawley & Jeremy Milton)
CSA – Animation (Jamie Sparer Roberts)

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One Guild

“Bad Moms”
CSA – Studio or Independent Comedy (Cathy Sandrich Gelfond; Meagan Lewis – Location Casting)

“Captain America”
SAG – Stunt Ensemble

CSA – Low Budget Comedy or Drama (Douglas Aibel, Stephanie Holbrook; Tracy Kilpatrick – Location Casting)

“The Edge of Seventeen”
CSA – Studio or Independent Comedy (Melissa Kostenbauder; Coreen Mayrs – Location Casting)

“Finding Dory”
CSA – Animation (Kevin Reher, Natalie Lyon)

“Florence Foster Jenkins”
SAG – Actress (Meryl Streep), Supporting Actor (Hugh Grant)

CSA – Low Budget Comedy or Drama (Susan Shopmaker; D. Lynn Meyers – Location Casting)

“Hello, My Name is Doris”
CSA – Low Budget Comedy or Drama (Sunday Boling, Meg Morman)

“Jason Bourne”
SAG – Stunt Ensemble

“Kubo and the Two Strings”
ACE – Animation (Christopher Murrie)

“The Little Prince”
CSA – Animation (Sarah Halley Finn)

“The Lobster”
ACE – Comedy/Musical (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)

ADG – Fantasy Film (Guy Hendrix Dyas)

“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
ADG – Fantasy Film (Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont)

“Rules Don’t Apply”
CSA – Big Budget Comedy (David Rubin)

“20th Century Women”
CSA – Studio or Independent Comedy (Laura Rosenthal, Mark Bennett)

“Whiskey Tango Foxtrot”
CSA – Big Budget Comedy (Bernard Telsey, Tiffany Little Canfield; Jo Edna Boldin – Location Casting)

“White Girl”
CSA – Low Budget Comedy or Drama (Jessica Daniels)

Predict the Oscar nominations now; change them till January 24

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. How do you think “La La Land” will do with academy voters? Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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