Oscar predictions: Visual Effects & Sound nominations for ‘The Jungle Book,’ ‘La La Land,’ ‘Rogue One’ & more

The Oscar fields of Visual Effects, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing are technical awards that often go to big-budget blockbusters, action films and epics — though successful musicals occasionally pull off an ambush in sound categories. So who will earn nominations in these races when the final contenders are announced on Tuesday, January 24?

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These official racetrack odds below are derived from the predictions of Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the top scores when you combine the last two years’ nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.

The Jungle Book” – 19/10
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 4/1
Doctor Strange” – 9/2
Arrival” – 13/2
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 10/1

Hacksaw Ridge” – 2/1
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 4/1
La La Land” – 6/1
“Arrival” – 13/2
“The Jungle Book” – 16/1

“La La Land” – 17/10
“Hacksaw Ridge” – 4/1
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 11/2
“Arrival” – 9/1
“The Jungle Book” – 16/1

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The experts strongly favor “The Jungle Book” for the win in the Visual Effects contest, with 19 out of 25 backing Disney’s live-action re-imagining of its classic 1967 animated film: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Glenn Whipp (LA Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).

But another three experts say it will be the Marvel superhero movie “Doctor Strange”: Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Tim Gray (Variety) and Brian Truitt (USA Today).

The final three experts are betting on “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”: Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Michael Musto (Out.com) and Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby).

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Meanwhile, our Editors are divided. Three of us pick “The Jungle Book”: Chris Beachum, Tom O’Neil and myself. Three more are backing “Rogue One”: Rob Licuria, Matt Noble and Paul Sheehan. Marcus James Dixon is going out on a limb for “Arrival.”

The Top 24 Users strongly favor “The Jungle Book” as well, with 17 of those elite predictors giving it best odds, including JasonOsia, who had the highest accuracy predicting last year’s Oscar nominations (83%). One top user, aascenzo, picks “Doctor Strange.”

Our All-Star users are even more strongly in favor of “The Jungle Book” as the Visual Effects frontrunner. Twenty of them are betting on it to prevail, while one forecasts an upset for “Doctor Strange” and another says “Arrival” will prevail.

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While action spectacles usually have the advantage in the Best Visual Effects race, musicals tend to lead the way for Best Sound Mixing. “La La Land” is the frontrunner there with support from 21 out of 25 Experts, six out of seven Editors, 16 of our Top 24 and 19 of our All-Stars, but “Rogue One” and the war film “Hacksaw Ridge” are both forces to be reckoned with in that race as well.

War films have a strong track record for Sound Editing, so it’s no surprise that “Hacksaw” leads the way there with support from 15 out of 25 Experts, four out of seven Editors, 15 of our Top 24 Users and 18 All-Star users, though “Rogue One” and “La La Land” also have support in that race.

Predict the Oscar nominations now; change them till January 24

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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