Breaking down the precursor awards — both nominations and winners — as well as the top Oscar nominations by categories gives us 35 key races that will determine the strongest contenders. Last year’s Best Picture champ, “Spotlight,” went into Oscar night with checkmarks in 21 boxes while its two closest rivals, “The Revenant” and “The Big Short,” outpaced it with 23 and 22 ticks respectively.
After Sunday’s SAG Awards, we are now up to 29 of the 35 boxes being in play (as detailed below and indicated by italics). The clear favorite remains “La La Land,” which has ticks in a staggering 27 boxes; to date its only missed out on the nomination and win boxes for SAG Film Ensemble. And with “La La Land” ingenue Emma Stone winning Best Actress from the guild, the film is still far out in front.
As expected, Mahershala Ali won Best Supporting Actor at the SAG Awards for “Moonlight,” bringing that film’s total tally to 21 checkmarks. However, the film lost Best Ensemble to “Hidden Figures,” which now has nine boxes filled.
“Fences” is up to 11 after taking home two individual acting awards for featured player Viola Davis and leading man Denzel Washington. The latter came at the expense of the frontrunner, “Manchester by the Sea” star Casey Affleck. That defeat, coupled with the cast losing in the Best Ensemble race means that Kenneth Lonergan’s film remains stalled at 20 boxes ticked.
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SAG – Screen Actors Guild
PGA – Producers Guild of America
DGA – Directors Guild of America
WGA – Writers Guild of America
ACE – American Cinema Editors
- 1) Critics Choice, Best Picture – NOMINATION
- 2) Critics Choice, Best Picture – WIN
- 3) Golden Globe, Best Picture (Comedy/Musical or Drama) – NOMINATION
- 4) Golden Globe, Best Picture (Comedy/Musical or Drama) – WIN
- 5) Golden Globe, Directing – NOMINATION
- 6) Golden Globe, Directing – WIN
- 7) Golden Globe, Acting (Any category) – NOMINATION
- 8) Golden Globe, Acting (Any category) – WIN
- 9) Golden Globe, Writing – NOMINATION
- 10) Golden Globe, Writing – WIN
- 11) BAFTA, Best Picture – NOMINATION
- 12) BAFTA, Best Picture – WIN
- 13) BAFTA, Directing – NOMINATION
- 14) BAFTA, Directing – WIN
- 15) BAFTA, Acting – NOMINATION
- 16) BAFTA, Acting – WIN
- 17) BAFTA, Writing – NOMINATION
- 18) BAFTA, Writing – WIN
- 19) SAG, Individual Performance – NOMINATION
- 20) SAG, Individual Performance – WIN
- 21) SAG, Ensemble Performance- NOMINATION
- 22) SAG, Ensemble Performance- WIN
- 23) PGA – NOMINATION
- 24) PGA – WIN
- 25) DGA – NOMINATION
- 26) DGA – WIN
- 27) WGA – NOMINATION
- 28) WGA – WIN
- 29) ACE – NOMINATION
- 30) ACE – WIN
- 31) Oscar, Directing – NOMINATION
- 32) Oscar, Acting – NOMINATION
- 33) Oscar, Writing – NOMINATION
- 34) Oscar, Film Editing – NOMINATION
- 35) Love Across the Board (Over 5 Oscar nominations)
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Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before winners are announced on February 26 at 5:00 pm PT/8:00 pm ET. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.
