Breaking down the precursor awards — both nominations and winners — as well as the top Oscar nominations by categories gives us 35 key races that will determine the strongest contenders. Last year’s Best Picture champ, “Spotlight,” went into Oscar night with checkmarks in 21 boxes while its two closest rivals, “The Revenant” and “The Big Short,” outpaced it with 23 and 22 ticks respectively.
After Sunday’s BAFTA Awards, we are now up to 34 of the 35 boxes being in play (as detailed below and indicated by italics). The clear favorite remains “La La Land,” which has ticks in a staggering 31 boxes after taking home Best Picture, Director (Damien Chazelle) and Actress (Emma Stone) at the BAFTAs. To date its only missed out on the nomination and win boxes for SAG Film Ensemble and a writing win at BAFTA for Chazelle.
“Manchester by the Sea” now has 22 boxes ticked after BAFTA victories for leading man Casey Affleck and scripter Kenneth Lonergan, who also directed.
Garth Davis‘ “Lion” is up to 13 following surprise BAFTA wins for both Supporting Actor (Dev Patel) and Adapted Screenplay (Luke Davies). And “Fences” has an even dozen boxes filled with the Supporting Actress win for Viola Davis.
Among the other Oscar contenders, Barry Jenkins‘ “Moonlight” remains at 22 checkmarks after being shut out of the BAFTAS while Denis Villeneuve‘s “Arrival” still has a tally of 16 as it won only the sound award at the BAFTAs.
The final box to be filled in will be the WGAs on Feb. 19.
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SAG – Screen Actors Guild
PGA – Producers Guild of America
DGA – Directors Guild of America
WGA – Writers Guild of America
ACE – American Cinema Editors
- 1) Critics Choice, Best Picture – NOMINATION
- 2) Critics Choice, Best Picture – WIN
- 3) Golden Globe, Best Picture (Comedy/Musical or Drama) – NOMINATION
- 4) Golden Globe, Best Picture (Comedy/Musical or Drama) – WIN
- 5) Golden Globe, Directing – NOMINATION
- 6) Golden Globe, Directing – WIN
- 7) Golden Globe, Acting (Any category) – NOMINATION
- 8) Golden Globe, Acting (Any category) – WIN
- 9) Golden Globe, Writing – NOMINATION
- 10) Golden Globe, Writing – WIN
- 11) BAFTA, Best Picture – NOMINATION
- 12) BAFTA, Best Picture – WIN
- 13) BAFTA, Directing – NOMINATION
- 14) BAFTA, Directing – WIN
- 15) BAFTA, Acting – NOMINATION
- 16) BAFTA, Acting – WIN
- 17) BAFTA, Writing – NOMINATION
- 18) BAFTA, Writing – WIN
- 19) SAG, Individual Performance – NOMINATION
- 20) SAG, Individual Performance – WIN
- 21) SAG, Ensemble Performance- NOMINATION
- 22) SAG, Ensemble Performance- WIN
- 23) PGA – NOMINATION
- 24) PGA – WIN
- 25) DGA – NOMINATION
- 26) DGA – WIN
- 27) WGA – NOMINATION
- 28) WGA – WIN
- 29) ACE – NOMINATION
- 30) ACE – WIN
- 31) Oscar, Directing – NOMINATION
- 32) Oscar, Acting – NOMINATION
- 33) Oscar, Writing – NOMINATION
- 34) Oscar, Film Editing – NOMINATION
- 35) Love Across the Board (Over 5 Oscar nominations)
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