The Producers Guild of America announced its 10 nominees for Best Picture on Tuesday (Jan, 10): “Arrival,” “Deadpool,” “Fences,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “Hell or High Water,” “ .” “La La Land,” “Lion,” “Manchester by the Sea” and “Moonlight.”
Nine of these number among those we are predicting will be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars The one exception — the PGA snubbed Martin Scorsese‘s art house film “Silence,” which ranked tenth on our list, in favor of “Deadpool.” That comic book come to life starring Ryan Reynolds holds the record for the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time ($783 million worldwide.)
UPDATED: Odds in all 24 Oscar categories
When the Oscars expanded to 10 nominees in 2009, the Producers Guild of America followed suit. But while the academy shifted to a sliding scale in 2011, the PGA has stuck with 10 contenders. That leeway has helped it maintain a staggering success rate at previewing the eventual Oscars roster. Indeed, the guild has predicted 54 of the 63 (i.e., 85%) of the Best Picture nominees over the past seven years.
Last year, the PGA went with “The Big Short” for Best Picture while the Oscars opted for “Spotlight.” The guild and academy had agreed on the previous eight Best Pictures in a row (though there was an unprecedented tie here in 2013 between eventual Oscar winner “12 Years a Slave” and “Gravity”). Key to the import of this precursor prize is that it picks a winner using the same kind of counting as the Oscars — the preferential ballot.
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The PGA also revealed the five nominees for Best Animated Feature: “Finding Dory,” “Kubo and the Two Strings,” “Moana,” “The Secret Life of Pets” and “Zootopia” This is our predicted line-up of Oscar nominees with one exception: we’re betting on the critically acclaimed indie “The Red Turtle” to replace “The Secret Life of Pets” at the Oscars.
The Documentary Feature lineup is: “Dancer,” “Eagle Huntress,” “Life, Animated,” “O.J.: Made in America” and “Tower.” Of these, “Dancer” did not make the shortlist of 15 films still in contention at the Oscars. Of the other four PGA picks, we are predicting only “Eagle Huntress” and “O.J.: Made in America” will make the grade at the Oscars, with “Cameraperson,” “I Am Not Your Negro” and “13th” rounding out that category.
PGA Awards winners will be revealed during a Jan. 28 ceremony at the Beverly Hilton Hotel.
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