‘Survivor: Game Changers’ elimination odds: Without Queen Sandra’s protection is Jeff Varner next to go?

Now that queen Sandra Diaz-Twine is out of “Survivor: Game Changers” it’s anyone’s game to win, but her exit has left her most loyal minion Jeff Varner vulnerable heading into this week’s episode, “What Happened on Exile, Stays on Exile.” As the odd man out on the new Nuku tribe, Jeff leads our predictions to be eliminated next with 6/5 odds. Behind him are two other Nuku members: Debbie Wanner (4/1 odds) who is returning from exile and Ozzy Lusth (13/2 odds) in the apparent leadership position on the tribe. The consensus seems to be that Nuku will lose immunity and vote someone out, so who will it be? Read my analysis of how these players on the chopping block are faring in the game and then update your “Survivor 34” predictions in our weekly event.

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Jeff’s game up until this point has been largely defined by what Sandra wanted, more or less acting like her chief minion, but now that she’s gone he must take a more active role in his life in the game. Heading into this week he falls into one of two positions at the Nuku camp, both equally precarious. The first seems the most obvious — as the easy vote. The same alliance that ousted Sandra can cruise through another tribal by agreeing to stick together and vote Jeff out next. If that’s the case, there’s nothing Jeff can do and he’ll be going home.

The more interesting scenario is that someone realizes Jeff can be used as a swing vote to make a power play against someone else. If that happens, Jeff should be safe from the vote which would probably put Debbie as the next in line of fire. Debbie will be joining the tribe for the first time after an extended stay on Exile Island. She comes to to the tribe having few past connections with current Nuku members and will have to fight the assumption that the “Kaoh Rong” three (Debbie/Tai/Aubry) are a threatening secret alliance.

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Ozzy, the de facto leader of Nuku, is the most worried about Debbie’s potential to join Tai Trang and Aubry Bracco if left in the game too long. He’ll likely go on the offensive against Debbie this week as an easier vote than Jeff. With both Jeff and Debbie on the outs, they could make a move to sway a few of the other members to turn against Ozzy, who now holds the record for playing the most days on “Survivor.”

In any other season, the idea that a challenge asset like Ozzy would be eliminated at this point in the competition would seem highly unlikely. But this season a lot of strong men have already went home, leaving the less physically dominant (but more cunning) women in the game. Sarah Lacina has already shown an inclination of wanting to make a big move this time, so using Debbie and Jeff to blindside Ozzy might be her perfect chance.

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Get a closer look at the Season 34 contestants by clicking through our cast photo gallery. In our “Survivor” predictions center, you get to answer the following questions before each episode airs on CBS every Wednesday at 5 p.m. PT / 8 p.m. ET.:

Who will win “Survivor”?

Who will be eliminated?

Who will win Reward?

Who will win Immunity?

Will a hidden idol be played?

Will anybody quit or be medevaced?

Who will win ‘Survivor: Game Changers’? See exclusive odds

Gold Derby readers just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. You can continue to update and change your forecasts throughout the week, just click “Save” when you’ve settled on your choices. You’ll compete to win bragging rights and a place of honor on our leaderboard. Be sure to read our contest rules and sound off on the season of “Survivor” in our reality TV forum.

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