‘The Americans’ will win Emmy for Best Drama Series according to one of last year’s savviest users

The Americans” will win Best Drama Series at the Emmys. As of this writing that’s the forecast of one of our Gold Derby readers who goes by the username unbb24. And we should take his predictions seriously because he tied for the top score when predicting last year’s Emmy nominations. He and two other users scored 76% accuracy in last year’s nominations — that’s higher than anyone else at Gold Derby, and we had more than 1,800 users entering their picks. That earned unbb24 a spot in our Top 24 Users league for the two dozen people who had the best scores last year.

Is he right that “The Americans” will win? It took a while for the FX spy drama to catch on with Emmy voters. For its first season in 2013 it only earned nominations for Best Drama Guest Actress (Margo Martindale) and Best Main Title Theme Music. Then in 2014 Martindale was nominated again in the guest category, but the show received no other recognition.

Things started to look up in 2015, when the show earned its first nomination for Best Drama Writing and Martindale actually won Drama Guest Actress. Then the show took off in 2016. Martindale won again, and the show earned another nomination for Best Drama Writing, but it also made the cut in all three top categories: Best Drama Actor (Matthew Rhys), Best Drama Actress (Keri Russell) and Best Drama Series.

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But can the show really win Best Drama Series for the first time after so long on the sidelines? Not only is it possible, there’s also precedent. “The Americans” is competing for its fifth season, and five seems to be a magic number at the Emmys. “The Sopranos” didn’t win Best Drama Series until its fifth season. Neither did “24” or “Breaking Bad.” And for that matter, reigning champ “Game of Thrones” won Best Drama Series for the first time for its fifth season. Now “Thrones” is out of the running because it didn’t air any new episodes during the eligibility period, which leaves the door wide open.

“The Americans” might also benefit from “Homeland” waning at the Emmys. Industry fans of TV spies rallied around that show in its early years (it won Best Drama Series in 2012), but it has lost some ground of late, and some of that support may end up shifting to the similarly themed “The Americans,” about Russian spies operating undercover against the US government during the Cold War.

What do you think? Is our top user crazy, or will those spies sneak off with a win?

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