We’ve got a long way to go before the Oscars on March 4, 2018, and almost as long before the Independent Spirit Awards are handed out the day before on March 3, but the awards season has already been good to Timothee Chalamet (“Call Me by Your Name”), who has won Best Actor from both the New York Film Critics Circle and Los Angeles Film Critics Association. Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”) is still the favorite for Oscar, but Chalamet is the early frontrunner at the Spirit Awards based on hundreds of users who have already made their forecasts.
Those early users include three Expert film journalists who have already chimed in with their picks: Edward Douglas, Joyce Eng (TV Guide), and Anne Thompson (IndieWire). “Call Me by Your Name” is the top film at the Spirit Awards with six total nominations including Best Picture, so it stands to reason that the film’s leading man would charge out front in the acting race, especially since he isn’t up against Oldman or Daniel Day-Lewis (“Phantom Thread”). And our elite users agree. Chalamet is backed by 18 of our Top 24 Users, who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Spirit Award winners. And he’s favored by 14 of our All-Star Top 24, who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ predictions. When you combine all predictions he gets leading odds of 1/1.
Chalamet’s closest threat is currently James Franco (“The Disaster Artist”) with 12/5 odds. No Experts are predicting him to win as of this writing, but he’s backed by three of our Top 24 and nine All-Stars. However, this is the only nomination for “The Disaster Artist” at the Spirit Awards, which may indicate that support for the film is too limited overall. But Spirit Award voters often fall in line behind whichever nominee is the strongest Oscar contender, so if Franco’s momentum picks up over the course of the season he could yet prevail here.
Do you agree with our latest predictions or are we underestimating Chalamet and Franco’s rivals Daniel Kaluuya (“Get Out”), Robert Pattinson (“Good Time”), and Harris Dickinson (“Beach Rats”)?
Be sure to make your Indie Spirit predictions so that Hollywood studio executives and top name stars can see how their films are faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 3. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Spirit Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.