2018 ACE Eddie Awards preview: Which Oscar nominee will win?

The American Cinema Editors guild, which hands out its awards on Jan. 26, has a good track record as a preview of the Oscar winner for Best Picture (17 out of the last 27) and a great one for forecasting who will win the Film Editing Oscar (20 of the last 27). And, not surprisingly, it is also fairly prescient when it comes to predicting the five Film Editing Oscar nominations.

In 1992, the Eddies went from three to five nominees (matching that of the Oscars) and in 2000 it split the award in two, with five nominees for each of drama and comedy/musical. Over the past 25 years, 110 of the 125 Oscar nominees for Film Editing had first reaped a Golden Eddie bid; that is an accuracy rate of 88%.

Among this year’s ACE Eddie nominees is our Oscar frontrunner for Best Film Editing, “Dunkirk.” It contends in drama at the guild as does one of its Oscar rivals, “The Shape of Water.” That race is rounded out by  “Blade Runner 2049,” “Molly’s Game” and “The Post.” The other three Oscar nominees — “Baby Driver,” “I, Tonya,”  and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” — vie for the comedy ACE Award, with “Get Out” and “Lady Bird” also in the running. (Check out the full list of Eddie Awards nominations.)

SEE 2018 Oscar nominations: Full list of Academy Awards nominees in all 24 categories

Last year, all five of the Oscar nominees for Best Film Editing — “Arrival,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “Hell or High Water,” “La La Land,”  and “Moonlight” — were first in contention at the ACE awards. John Gilbert won the Oscar for cutting “Hacksaw Ridge,” despite having lost the Golden Eddie to Joe Walker for his work on “Arrival.” Tom Cross had picked up the ACE award on the comedy/musical side for “La La Land.”

In 2015, two of the Oscar nominees for Best Film Editing — “Mad Max: Fury Road” and “The Big Short” — prevailed here first, winning the drama and comedy Eddie awards. Eventual Oscar champ “Mad Max: Fury Road” edged out two Oscar rivals — “The Revenant” and “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” — as well as “The Martian” and “Sicario.” “The Big Short” prevailed over “Ant-Man,” “Joy,” “Me and Earl and the Dying Girl” and “Trainwreck.” The fifth Oscar nominee — “Spotlight” — was snubbed by the guild.

In 2014, all five Oscar nominees first reaped Eddie bids: eventual Oscar champ “Whiplash” as well as ACE champs “Boyhood” and “Grand Budapest,” plus “American Sniper” and “The Imitation Game.”  In 2013 four of the Eddie nominees made the cut at the Oscars (“Dallas Buyers Club” got the fifth slot).

In both 2012 and in 2011 five of the Eddie nominees comprised the Oscar slate. In 2010, four Eddie nominees contended at the Oscars (“127 Hours” got the fifth slot) while in 2009, only three of five ACE drama nominees — “Avatar,” “District 9” and “The Hurt Locker” — reaped Oscar bids with “Inglorious Basterds” and “Precious” added to the mix.

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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