2018 Critics’ Choice predictions: ‘The Shape of Water’ will get its revenge against ‘Three Billboards’ by winning Best Picture

The Shape of Water” had a pretty good night at the 2018 Golden Globes, winning two of its seven nominations: Best Director (Guillermo Del Toro) and Best Score (Alexandre Desplat). It lost Best Film Drama to “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” but the Critics’ Choice Awards are right around the corner on January 11, and according to our latest predictions “The Shape of Water” will get its revenge by winning Best Picture.

The Critics’ Choice Awards are handed out by hundreds of journalists who make up the Broadcast Film Critics Association, and just like at the Golden Globes “Shape of Water” is the most nominated film with 14 bids. That’s double the amount it had at the Globes, but Critics’ Choice presents far more categories, particularly in below-the-line craft categories where “Shape of Water” should have a distinct advantage against a character-driven indie like “Three Billboards.” As of this writing “Shape” gets leading odds of 17/10 to win Best Picture. That’s based on the combined predictions of more than 1,200 users who have entered their picks at Gold Derby. Among those are six Expert film journalists who are forecasting the race, and three of them agree with the consensus that “The Shape of Water” will win: Edward Douglas, Tariq Khan (Fox News), and Adnan Virk (ESPN).

But the race is far from decided as our other three Experts are split three ways. Grae Drake (Rotten Tomatoes) is betting on “Get Out.” Joyce Eng (Gold Derby) is picking “The Post.” And Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) says “Dunkirk” is ahead.

Gold Derby’s Editors who cover awards year-round are also split, but only two ways. “The Shape of Water” is predicted by Paul Sheehan and me, but the other three are putting their money on “The Post”: Eng, Chris Beachum, and Marcus James Dixon. Overall, that boosts “The Post” to second-place odds of 11/4, but the momentum might have shifted since the unexpected shut-out for “The Post” at the Globes on Sunday night.

Do you agree with our Critics’ Choice odds?

Be sure to make your Critics’ Choice predictions so that Hollywood studio executives and top name stars can see how their films are faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on January 11. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Critics’ Choice Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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