“Laura Dern’s going to pretty easily win this,” Zach Laws says about the Emmy race for Best Movie/Mini Actress in a predictions slugfest with me and our fellow Gold Derby contributors Charles Bright, Tony Ruiz and Amanda Spears (watch it above). Three quarters of Gold Derby users share Laws’s opinion, making Dern an overwhelming front-runner with 3/10 odds for her performance in the movie “The Tale.”
But maybe it’s not such a done deal. “The person we all need to stop and consider is Michelle Dockery,” contends Spears, despite the odds placing Jessica Biel in the runner-up position with 11/1 odds for her performance in the first season of “The Sinner,” for which she received Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Award nominations. Dockery’s performance in the miniseries “Godless” was eligible for those awards too, but she didn’t get in.
Ruiz is the only one on our panel who is going as far as to predict Dockery to upset. “At least we know that the Emmy voters really watched ‘Godless,’” he argues, pointing to the 12 total nominations for the Netflix western. Meanwhile, “The Tale” is only nominated for Best TV Movie and Best Movie/Mini Actress for Dern. Ruiz adds that the sexual abuse subject matter of “The Tale” makes it “a tough sit … Dern is very, very good in it,” but he wonders if name-recognition helped her earn a bid.
But Bright is “still going with Laura Dern. I think she got in because of the buzz for this show. If she had gotten in purely on name recognition, I think we would see her in the supporting category as well [for ‘Twin Peaks’].” However, Bright does agree that Dockery could be her closest threat. “I think she’s the one to watch out for and could very well be an Emmy upset.”
Rounding out the category are Regina King for “Seven Seconds,” Sarah Paulson for “American Horror Story: Cult” and Edie Falco for “Law and Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders.” This is Paulson’s fifth nomination for “American Horror Story” without a win, while “Seven Seconds” and “The Menendez Murders,” like “The Sinner,” have no other nominations. So “I don’t know how this is much of a contest,” Laws concludes.
Be sure to make your Emmy predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before winners are announced on September 17. Be sure to also predict winners for the Creative Arts ceremonies slated for September 8 and 9. And join in the debate taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our television forum. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.