“It’s one of the most unpredictable categories at the Emmys: Best Movie/Mini Writing,” I declare to my fellow Gold Derby contributors Riley Chow, Zach Laws, Tom O’Brien and Tony Ruiz in our Emmy predictions slugfest (watch above). Based on our latest forecasts, this is currently predicted to be a race between the Best Limited Series front-runner “The Assassination of Gianni Versace” for the episode “House by the Lake” (Tom Rob Smith) and the Best TV Movie front-runner “USS Callister: Black Mirror” (William Bridges and Charlie Brooker). But might we be underestimating “Godless” (Scott Frank)?
“Black Mirror” is the defending champ, having won this race last year for “San Junipero,” but Laws wonders, “Has there been an instance of a repeat winner? That’s what this would technically be.” Even in an era of series and anthologies we haven’t seen a program defend its title. “Sherlock” only won once in three attempts (“His Last Vow” in 2014). “Prime Suspect” only ever won once out of its two attempts (“The Final Act” in 2007). And “Fargo” and “American Horror Story” haven’t been able to win at all yet.
But Chow still thinks this is a no-brainer: “This is one of the easiest races to call. Last year ‘Black Mirror’ had three nominations. This year it has seven.” So with more than double the overall support, it might be hard to bet against it for a second win.
But there’s another anthology that could repeat: “American Crime Story,” which won in 2016 for “The People v. O.J. Simpson” and could win again for “Versace.” “‘House by the Lake’ is the best episode of ‘Versace’ and would make a worthy winner,” says Ruiz. And I add, “It’s such an achievement to me to know Cody Fern’s character [David Madson] is going to end up dead and still rooting for him the entire episode to get away from Darren Criss’s character [Andrew Cunanan].”
While we differ on who we expect to win we agree we shouldn’t rule out a “Godless” upset. According to our predictions so far, “Godless” is in last place with odds of 50/1. But O’Brien would be “thrilled if ‘Godless’ won.” And Laws agrees: “Certainly ‘Godless’ is in this. Scott Frank is a very talented writer.” The fact that he directed as well as wrote all seven episodes might impress voters even more, and coming off an Oscar nomination for co-writing “Logan” couldn’t hurt either.
Be sure to make your Emmy predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before winners are announced on September 17. Be sure to also predict winners for the Creative Arts ceremonies slated for September 8 and 9. And join in the fun debate over the 2018 Emmy taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our television forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.