2018 Grammys predictions: ‘Hello, Dolly!’ could upset ‘Dear Evan Hansen’ because voters love divas like Bette Midler

2017 Tony winner for Best Musical “Dear Evan Hansen” heads into this weekend’s Grammys as the heavy favorite to win Best Musical Theater Album. Since 2001 10 Tony winners for Best Musical also won the Grammy. However, we shouldn’t underestimate the 2017 Tony winner for Best Musical Revival, “Hello, Dolly!” It may have a secret weapon: the Grammys love divas like Bette Midler.

“Dear Evan Hansen” is currently out front with overwhelming odds of 1/10. Those odds are based on the combined predictions of more than 1,900 users who have entered their picks at Gold Derby thus far, including eight Expert journalists from top media outlets who are unanimous that “Evan Hansen” will win: Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Glenn Gamboa (Newsday), Edna Gundersen (Gold Derby), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Lyndsey Parker (Yahoo Music), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Adnan Virk (ESPN) and Chris Willman (Variety).

But “Hello, Dolly!” is in a decent position to upset in second place with odds of 11/1. What really gives “Hello, Dolly!” a possible competitive edge is the name that appears above the marquee: Midler. Grammy voters love well-known artists. Three times when the Best Musical Tony winner did not win the Grammy, the recording academy’s champ was associated with an artist or a band that the Grammys respected and had awarded previously. In 2000 “Elton John and Tim Rice’s Aida” was snubbed by the Tonys for Best Musical, but later took home the Grammy. In 2010 “Memphis” took home the Tony, but the Grammys preferred Green Day‘s “American Idiot.” And in 2014 the Tonys preferred “A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder” while the Grammys went with “Beautiful: The Carole King Musical.”

And the Grammys especially love powerhouse female vocalists. “Gypsy” took home the Grammy in 2004 after losing Best Musical Revival the previous year at the Tonys thanks in no small part part to the star-power of Bernadette Peters. And later “The Color Purple” followed its 2016 Tony win for Musical Revival with a Grammy last year with help from three divas: Cynthia Erivo, Danielle Brooks and Jennifer Hudson.

Midler fits this mold perfectly with her impressive resume. She’s a 12-time Grammy nominee and three-time winner: Best New Artist (1974), Best Female Pop Vocal Performance for “The Rose” (1981) and Record of the Year for “Wind Beneath My Wings” (1990). On top of that she’s also a three-time Emmy winner, four-time Golden Globe winner, and a two-time Oscar nominee. Add in the fact that it’s been 28 years since Midler last won a Grammy, and this opportunity could be too tempting for the recording academy to pass up.

Be sure to make your Grammy predictions so that Hollywood record executives and top name stars can see how their songs and albums are faring in our Grammy odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on January 28. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Grammys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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