2018 Independent Spirit Awards predictions: Complete odds in 11 categories for the best in low-budget film

Who will win the Independent Spirit Awards when they’re handed out this weekend on Saturday, March 3, at a ceremony hosted by Nick Kroll and John Mulaney? These awards, traditionally held the day before the Academy Awards, specifically celebrate low-budget and indie films produced for less than $20 million, which excludes Oscar fare like “Dunkirk,” “Phantom Thread” and “The Post.” But there are still numerous Oscar contenders in the Spirit Awards lineup, so these kudos could still give us a preview of what’s to come, especially when you consider that the Spirits presaged the Oscar upsets by “Spotlight” (2015) and “Moonlight” (2016) in the last two years. Scroll down for our complete predictions in 11 categories ranked in order of their racetrack odds. The projected winners are highlighted in gold.

These odds were generated by combining the predictions of more than 1,800 Gold Derby users who have entered their picks in our predictions center thus far. That includes Expert journalists we’ve polled from top media outlets, the Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Spirit Awards, the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years predictions, and the mass of everyday Users, one of whom will probably outscore us all when betting on these prizes.

Call Me by Your Name” is the top nominee at this event with six bids, though it’s not necessarily the front-runner to win Best Picture. It trails the horror satire “Get Out” in our odds, but it’s a close race. And “Lady Bird” is in the mix as well. That’s consistent with the entire awards season, which has ping-ponged back and forth between numerous contenders.

Surprisingly, though, two of those major contenders are absent from Best Picture at the Spirit Awards: “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Those are the top two contenders for the Best Picture Oscars according to our predictions, but even though they were both eligible for Spirit Awards neither made the cut. “Three Billboards” did earn other nominations despite missing the top category, but “Shape of Water” was shut out entirely. Were those just flukes, or the canaries in the coal mine leading into Sunday night’s Academy Awards?

Check out our complete Spirit Awards predictions below. Keep making or updating your own picks here before Saturday’s show.

“Get Out” — 8/13
“Call Me by Your Name” — 5/2
“Lady Bird” — 7/1
“The Florida Project” — 50/1
“The Rider” — 100/1

Jordan Peele, “Get Out” — 1/3
Luca Guadagnino, “Call Me by Your Name” — 3/1
Sean Baker, “The Florida Project” — 33/1
Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie, “Good Time” — 66/1
Chloe Zhao, “The Rider” — 66/1
Jonas Carpignano, “A Ciambra” — 100/1

Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name” — 1/10
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out” — 11/1
James Franco, “The Disaster Artist” — 20/1
Robert Pattinson, “Good Time” — 50/1
Harris Dickinson, “Beach Rats” — 80/1

Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” — 1/3
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird” — 14/5
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya” — 40/1
Salma Hayek, “Beatriz at Dinner” — 66/1
Shinobu Terajima, “Oh Lucy!” — 80/1
Regina Williams, “Life and Nothing More” — 80/1

Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” — 1/20
Armie Hammer, “Call Me by Your Name” — 9/1
Barry Keoghan, “Killing of a Sacred Deer” — 40/1
Benny Safdie, “Good Time,” 66/1
Nnamdi Asomugha, “Crown Heights” — 80/1

Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird” — 2/3
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya” — 13/10
Holly Hunter, “The Big Sick” — 40/1
Lois Smith, “Marjorie Prime” — 66/1
Taliah Lennice Webster, “Good Time” — 80/1

“Get Out” — 4/5
“Lady Bird” — 19/10
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” — 11/2
“Beatriz at Dinner” — 66/1
“The Lovers” — 100/1

“Columbus” — 4/11
“Ingrid Goes West” — 7/2
“Patti Cake$” — 13/2
“Menashe” — 28/1
“Oh Lucy!” — 66/1

“The Big Sick” — 1/100
“Columbus” — 20/1
“Ingrid Goes West” — 40/1
“Women Who Kill” — 66/1
“Donald Cried” — 80/1

“Call Me by Your Name” — 1/100
“Killing of a Sacred Deer” — 22/1
“Columbus” — 40/1
“Beach Rats” — 66/1
“The Rider” — 66/1

“Get Out” — 8/11
“I, Tonya” — 19/10
“Good Time” — 10/1
“Call Me by Your Name” — 12/1
“The Rider” — 100/1

Be sure to make your Indie Spirit predictions so that Hollywood studio executives and top name stars can see how their films are faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 3. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Spirit Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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