2018 Oscar Best Picture predictions by experts: After BAFTA wins, ‘Three Billboard’ gets boost

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” swept the BAFTAs on Sunday (Feb. 18), winning five awards including Best Picture. Mindful that the British academy often previews the Academy Awards, our Oscar experts from major media outlets have been busy updating their predictions. Six of our pundits now favor Martin McDonagh‘s character study to win. That support translates into odds of 10/3 to take the top prize on March 4. (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.)

However, exactly half of our two dozen experts are still backing the Best Picture bid by “The Shape of Water.” Those votes give it leading odds of 6/5. Guillermo del Toro won Best Director at BAFTA and his fantasy film picked up two other prizes (production design, score) there as well.

Five experts favor Jordan Peele‘s social satire “Get Out.” This gives the blockbuster odds of 4/1 to win the top Academy Award. And one expert is still forecasting a win for Greta Gerwig‘s coming-of-age charmer “Lady Bird,” which gives it odds of 18/1 to pull off an upset.

See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

SEE 2018 Oscar nominations: Full list of Academy Awards nominees in all 24 categories

Here’s how the Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the nine nominees to win:


1. “The Shape of Water”: 12 experts (6/5 odds)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Grae Drake (Rotten Tomatoes)
Joyce Eng (Gold Derby)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Pete Hammond (Deadline)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)
Sara Vilkomerson (EW)
Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere)
Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)

2. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: 6 experts (10/3 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Kyle Buchanan (Vulture)
Bonnie Fuller (HollywoodLife)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)

3. “Get Out”: 5 experts (4/1 odds)
Edward Douglas
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo!)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)

SEE 2018 Oscar nominations by movie: ‘The Shape of Water’ leads with 13 Academy Awards bids, but how many will it win?

4. “Lady Bird”: 1 expert (18/1 odds)
Chris Rosen (EW)

5. “Dunkirk”: (66/1 odds)

6. “The Post”: (66/1 odds)

PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until March 4

7. “Call Me By Your Name”: (100/1 odds)

8. “Darkest Hour”: (100/1 odds)

8. “Phantom Thread”: (100/1 odds)

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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