“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” just pulled into a tie for first place with longtime frontrunner “The Shape of Water” in the race for Best Picture. Of our 26 Oscar experts from major media outlets, each of these films now has 10 votes. “Get Out” still has five experts in its corner while “Lady Bird” has one backer. (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.)
This surge by “Three Billboards” has come at just the right time as final Oscar voting ends on Feb. 27. The winner of this prize, as well as the other 23 competitive categories, will be revealed live on the 90th Academy Awards that air on ABC on Sunday (March 4).
“Three Billboards” had the support of just five experts before it swept the BAFTAS on Feb. 18. Martin McDonagh‘s character study won both Best Picture and Best British Film, two acting awards (Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell) and original screenplay. Conversely, “The Shape of Water,” which took home three BAFTAs including Best Director (Guillermo del Toro), has fallen from 12 pundits to 10.
While the two films are tied for first-place votes with 10 apiece, more pundits are ranking “The Shape of Water” higher overall on their ballots than “Three Billboards.” That is an important consideration given the way in which the academy tallies the preferential ballots of its members. As such, “The Shape of Water” has leading odds of 9/5 to take home the top Oscar while “Three Billboards” is at 15/8.
Five experts favor Jordan Peele‘s social satire “Get Out.” This gives the blockbuster odds of 9/2 to claim the top Academy Award. And one expert is still forecasting a win for Greta Gerwig‘s coming-of-age charmer “Lady Bird,” which gives it odds of 20/1 to pull off an upset.
See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.
Here’s how the Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the nine nominees to win:
1. “The Shape of Water”: 10 experts (9/5 odds)
Grae Drake (Rotten Tomatoes)
Joyce Eng (Gold Derby)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Pete Hammond (Deadline)
Andrea Mandell (USA Today)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Sara Vilkomerson (EW)
Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere)
Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)
2. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: 10 experts (15/8 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Kyle Buchanan (Vulture)
Bonnie Fuller (HollywoodLife)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)
3. “Get Out”: 5 experts (9/2 odds)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair)
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo!)
4. “Lady Bird”: 1 expert (20/1 odds)
Chris Rosen (EW)
5. “Dunkirk”: (66/1 odds)
6. “The Post”: (66/1 odds)
7. “Call Me By Your Name”: (100/1 odds)
8. “Darkest Hour”: (100/1 odds)
8. “Phantom Thread”: (100/1 odds)
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.