2018 Oscar Best Picture predictions by experts: ‘The Shape of Water’ widens lead over ‘Three Billboards’ in week after nominations announcement

One week after the 2018 Academy Awards nominations announcement on Jan. 23 and Guillermo del Toro‘s fantasy film “The Shape of Water,” which reaped a leading 13 bids, has widened its lead for Best Picture according to our Oscar experts from major media outlets. Of the 18 experts weighing in, it has the votes of a whopping 11 of them and that support translates into it odds of 5/6 to take home the Best Picture award on March 4. (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.)

Martin McDonagh‘s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” which was the favorite before nominations were announced, now has the backing of four experts. The rest believe that the snub of McDonagh for directing will be an impossible obstacle to overcome. It has odds of 7/2 to win.

Two of our pundits favor Jordan Peele‘s social satire “Get Out.” That gives it odds of 8/1. And one is backing the bid by Greta Gerwig‘s coming-of-age charmer “Lady Bird,” which gives it odds of 14/1 to pull off an upset.

SEE 2018 Oscar nominations: Full list of Academy Awards nominees in all 24 categories

See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the nine nominees to win:

SEE 2018 Oscar nominations by movie: ‘The Shape of Water’ leads with 13 Academy Awards bids, but how many will it win?


1. “The Shape of Water”: 11 experts (5/6 odds)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Grae Drake (Rotten Tomatoes)
Joyce Eng (Gold Derby)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Pete Hammond (Deadline)
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)
Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)

2. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: 4 experts (7/2 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)

3. “Get Out”: 2 experts (8/1 odds)
Edward Douglas
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo!)

SEE 2018 Oscars calendar updated: Seven guild awards plus BAFTAs before final voting begins on Feb. 20

4. “Lady Bird”: 1 expert (14/1 odds)
Chris Rosen (EW)

5. “Dunkirk”: (66/1 odds)

6. “The Post”: (66/1 odds)

PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until March 4

7. “Call Me By Your Name”: (100/1 odds)

8. “Darkest Hour”: One expert (100/1 odds)

8. “Phantom Thread”: (100/1 odds)

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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