2018 Oscar Best Picture predictions by experts: ‘Three Billboards’ coming on strong against ‘The Shape of Water’ as voting ends Feb. 27

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” got a big boost in the race for Best Picture at the Oscars following its five wins at the BAFTAS last Sunday (Feb. 18). Nine of our 26 Oscar experts from major media outlets now favor Martin McDonagh‘s character study to win Best Picture at the Oscars. That is up from five votes before the British academy weighed in with their picks. Conversely, “The Shape of Water,” which won three BAFTAs including Best Director (Guillermo del Toro), fell from 12 pundits to 10. (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.)

That sweep at the BAFTAs, where it won both Best Picture and Best British Film, two acting awards (Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell) and original screenplay, came at just the right time for “Three Billboards.” Final voting for the Academy Awards began on Feb. 20 and ends on Feb. 27. While “The Shape of Water” still has the lead with odds of 9/5 to take home the top Oscar on March 4, “Three Billboards” is now a strong second with odds of 21/10.

Six experts favor Jordan Peele‘s social satire “Get Out.” This gives the blockbuster odds of 7/2 to claim the top Academy Award. And one expert is still forecasting a win for Greta Gerwig‘s coming-of-age charmer “Lady Bird,” which gives it odds of 22/1 to pull off an upset.

See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

SEE 2018 Oscar nominations: Full list of Academy Awards nominees in all 24 categories

Here’s how the Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the nine nominees to win:


1. “The Shape of Water”: 10 experts (9/5 odds)
Grae Drake (Rotten Tomatoes)
Joyce Eng (Gold Derby)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Pete Hammond (Deadline)
Andrea Mandell (USA Today)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Sara Vilkomerson (EW)
Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere)
Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)

2. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: 9 experts (21/10 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Kyle Buchanan (Vulture)
Bonnie Fuller (HollywoodLife)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)

3. “Get Out”: 6 experts (7/2 odds)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Edward Douglas
Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair)
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo!)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)

SEE 2018 Oscar nominations by movie: ‘The Shape of Water’ leads with 13 Academy Awards bids, but how many will it win?

4. “Lady Bird”: 1 expert (22/1 odds)
Chris Rosen (EW)

5. “Dunkirk”: (66/1 odds)

6. “The Post”: (66/1 odds)

PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until March 4

7. “Call Me By Your Name”: (100/1 odds)

8. “Darkest Hour”: (100/1 odds)

8. “Phantom Thread”: (100/1 odds)

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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