2018 Oscar Best Picture predictions by experts: ‘Three Billboards’ leaps ahead of ‘The Shape of Water’ as final voting ends

As final Oscar voting ended on Feb. 27, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” leapt ahead of “The Shape of Water” in the race for Best Picture. Martin McDonagh‘s character study now has the votes of 11 our 27 Oscar experts from major media outlets to win while Guillermo del Toro‘s fantasy has fallen back to nine. Those respective levels of support translate into odds of 17/10 versus 9/4.

But watch out for “Get Out,” which has six experts in its corner and competitive odds of 7/2. “Lady Bird” continues to have a single backer and odds of 20/1 to pull off an upset. (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.)

This late surge by “Three Billboards” coincides with the end of the second and final round of voting for the Oscars. The Best Picture winner, as well as those in the other 23 competitive categories, will be revealed live on the 90th Academy Awards that air on ABC on Sunday (March 4).

Before sweeping the BAFTAS on Feb. 18, “Three Billboards” had the support of just five experts . It won both Best Picture and Best British Film, two acting awards (Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell) and original screenplay. Conversely, “The Shape of Water,” which took home three BAFTAs including Best Director, had the support of an even dozen pundits heading into those precursor prizes.

SEE 2018 Oscar nominations: Full list of Academy Awards nominees in all 24 categories

See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the nine nominees to win:


1. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: 11 experts (17/10 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Kyle Buchanan (Vulture)
Bonnie Fuller (HollywoodLife)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)
Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere)

2. “The Shape of Water”: 9 experts (9/4 odds)
Grae Drake (Rotten Tomatoes)
Joyce Eng (Gold Derby)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Pete Hammond (Deadline)
Andrea Mandell (USA Today)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Sara Vilkomerson (EW)
Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)

3. “Get Out”: 6 experts (7/2 odds)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Edward Douglas
Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair)
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo!)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)

SEE 2018 Oscar nominations by movie: ‘The Shape of Water’ leads with 13 Academy Awards bids, but how many will it win?

4. “Lady Bird”: 1 expert (20/1 odds)
Chris Rosen (EW)

5. “Dunkirk”: (66/1 odds)

6. “The Post”: (66/1 odds)

PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until March 4

7. “Call Me By Your Name”: (100/1 odds)

8. “Darkest Hour”: (100/1 odds)

8. “Phantom Thread”: (100/1 odds)

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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