2018 Oscar Best Picture predictions by experts: After DGA win, ‘The Shape of Water’ widens lead over ‘Three Billboards’

Guillermo del Toro won the top prize at the Directors Guild of America Awards on Feb. 3 for his fantasy film “The Shape of Water.” Mindful that the DGA often previews the Academy Awards, our Oscar experts from major media outlets have been busy updating their predictions. Eleven of our 19 experts now back the Best Picture bid by “The Shape of Water.” That support translates into leading odds of 5/6. (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.)

Martin McDonagh‘s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” which was the favorite before Oscar nominations were announced on Jan. 23, now has the backing of just four experts. The rest believe that the snub of McDonagh for directing will be an impossible obstacle to overcome. It has odds of 7/2 to win.

Three of our pundits favor Jordan Peele‘s social satire “Get Out.” That gives it odds of 7/1. And one is backing the bid by Greta Gerwig‘s coming-of-age charmer “Lady Bird,” which gives it odds of 14/1 to pull off an upset.

SEE 2018 Oscar nominations: Full list of Academy Awards nominees in all 24 categories

See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the nine nominees to win:

SEE 2018 Oscar nominations by movie: ‘The Shape of Water’ leads with 13 Academy Awards bids, but how many will it win?


1. “The Shape of Water”: 11 experts (10/11 odds)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Grae Drake (Rotten Tomatoes)
Joyce Eng (Gold Derby)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Pete Hammond (Deadline)
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)
Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)

2. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: 4 experts (4/1 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)

3. “Get Out”: 3 experts (7/1 odds)
Edward Douglas
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo!)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)

SEE 2018 Oscars calendar updated: Seven guild awards plus BAFTAs before final voting begins on Feb. 20

4. “Lady Bird”: 1 expert (14/1 odds)
Chris Rosen (EW)

5. “Dunkirk”: (66/1 odds)

6. “The Post”: (66/1 odds)

PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until March 4

7. “Call Me By Your Name”: (100/1 odds)

8. “Darkest Hour”: One expert (100/1 odds)

8. “Phantom Thread”: (100/1 odds)

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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