With 13 bids, “The Shape of Water” fell one shy of tying the record for the most Oscar nominations in the 90-year history of the Academy Awards. That benchmark of 14 was set by “All About Eve” in 1951 and then matched by “Titanic” in 1998 and “La La Land” last year. While the first two of those films went on to win Best Picture, “La La Land” lost. And we are predicting the same fate to befall “The Shape of Water.” Indeed, our official odds have Guillermo del Toro‘s film winning just three Academy Awards: Best Director, Production Design and Original Score.
Second in the nominations count was the WWII epic “Dunkirk,” which netted eight, including Picture and Director (Christopher Nolan). We have it winning three as well: Film Editing and both sound awards. Another film set against the same backdrop, “Darkest Hour,” reaped six bids, with predicted wins for Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill and the makeup and hairstylists who transformed him into this wartime leader.
While “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” only contends in seven categories, we are predicting it will prevail in three of those, including Best Picture. Also look for Frances McDormand to take home her second Best Actress Oscar and Sam Rockwell to succeed on his first nomination.
Our racetrack odds for all 24 categories are derived from the predictions of film Experts, Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years, and thousands of total Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
See the full film-by-film breakdown below.
SEE 2018 Oscars: Full list of nominations in 24 categories at the 90th annual Academy Awards
13 NOMINATIONS
“The Shape of Water”
Best Picture
Best Director — Guillermo del Toro
Best Actress — Sally Hawkins
Best Supporting Actor — Richard Jenkins
Best Supporting Actress — Octavia Spencer
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Production Design
Best Score
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until March 4
8 NOMINATIONS
“Dunkirk”
Best Picture
Best Director — Christopher Nolan
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Production Design
Best Score
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
7 NOMINATIONS
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Best Picture
Best Actress — Frances McDormand
Best Supporting Actor — Woody Harrelson
Best Supporting Actor — Sam Rockwell
Best Original Screenplay
Best Film Editing
Best Score
6 NOMINATIONS
“Darkest Hour”
Best Picture
Best Actor — Gary Oldman
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Production Design
“Phantom Thread”
Best Picture
Best Director — Paul Thomas Anderson
Best Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Supporting Actress — Lesley Manville
Best Costume Design
Best Original Score
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5 NOMINATIONS
“Blade Runner 2049”
Best Cinematography
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
“Lady Bird”
Best Picture
Best Director — Greta Gerwig
Best Actress — Saoirse Ronan
Best Supporting Actress — Laurie Metcalf
Best Original Screenplay
4 NOMINATIONS
“Call Me By Your Name”
Best Picture
Best Actor — Timothee Chalamet
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Song — “The Mystery of Love”
“Get Out”
Best Picture
Best Director — Jordan Peele
Best Actor — Daniel Kaluuya
Best Original Screenplay
“Mudbound”
Best Supporting Actress — Mary J. Blige
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Song — “Mighty River”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
Best Score
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
3 NOMINATIONS
“Baby Driver”
Best Film Editing
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
“I, Tonya”
Best Actress — Margot Robbie
Best Supporting Actress — Allison Janney
Best Film Editing
2 NOMINATIONS
“Beauty and the Beast”
Best Costume Design
Best Production Design
“The Post”
Best Picture
Best Actress — Meryl Streep
“Victoria and Abdul”
Best Costume Design
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1 NOMINATION
“All the Money in the World”
Christopher Plummer
“The Big Sick”
Best Original Screenplay
“The Disaster Artist”
Best Adapted Screenplay
“The Florida Project”
Best Supporting Actor – Willem Dafoe
“The Greatest Showman”
Best Original Song
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2”
Best Visual Effects
“Kong: Skull Island”
Best Visual Effects
“Logan”
Best Adapted Screenplay
“Marshall”
Best Original Song — “Stand Up for Something”
“Molly’s Game”
Best Adapted Screenplay
“Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
Best Actor — Denzel Washington
“War for the Planet of the Apes”
Best Visual Effects
“Wonder”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
