Best Supporting Actor Oscar predictions by experts: Sam Rockwell (‘Three Billboards’) vaults past Willem Dafoe (‘The Florida Project’)

Buoyed by his wins at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”) now has 18 of our 30 Oscar experts from major media outlets, predicting that he will win Best Supporting Actor. That support translates into leading odds of 11/5. Longtime frontrunner Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”), who has dominated the critics awards, still has the votes of 10 experts and odds of 27/10 to win an Oscar. (See the rankings of the experts in all 24 Oscar categories.)

This Academy Award often goes to an actor who has been overlooked by the academy in the past. Rockwell, who has never been nominated despite acclaimed turns in such films as “Conviction,” could win for his scene-stealing work as a racist police offer in Martin McDonagh‘s dark drama.

Dafoe, a well-respected character actor, lost this race back in 1986 for his role in the Best Picture “Platoon” and again in 2000 for “Shadow of the Vampire.” He could finally prevail for his sensitive portrayal of a kindly hotel manager in Sean Baker‘s film.

One expert foresees Michael Stuhlbarg winning for his understated work as the father of a teenager who come out in “Call Me By Your Name.” He headlined the Oscar-nominated “A Serious Man” back in 2009 before featuring in such fare as “Hugo” “Lincoln” and “Arrival” but has yet to be recognized by the academy.

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Below we break down the Oscar Best Supporting Actor predictions by expert and include the most up-to-date odds for each of the top 10 contenders to win. And be sure to check out how our experts rank Oscar contenders in the other top races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

1. Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: 9 experts (11/5 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Kyle Buchanan (Vulture)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Grae Drake (Rotten Tomatoes)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Dave Karger (IMDB)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Andrea Mandell (USA Today)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly)

2. Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”: 10 experts (27/10 odds)
Edward Douglas (Tracking Board)
Joyce Eng (Gold Derby)
Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life)
Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair)
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)
Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times)
Susan Wloszczyna (

3. Michael Stuhlbarg, “Call Me By Your Name”: One expert (13/2 odds)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)

4. Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”: One expert (10/1 odds)

5. Armie Hammer, “Call Me By Your Name”: (11/1 odds)

6. Jason Mitchell, “Mudbound”: (18/1 odds)

7. Ben Mendelsohn, “Darkest Hour”: One expert (33/1 odds)

8. Mark Rylance, “Dunkirk”: (33/1 odds)

9. Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: (66/1 odds)

10. Ray Romano, “The Big Sick” (66/1 odds)

PREDICT the Oscar nominees now; change them until January 23

2018 Oscars Best Supporting Actor: Experts Predictions

Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

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