Since the Critics’ Choice Awards introduced nominations in 2001, there have been only 19 instances when a performer nominated for this prize as well as both the Golden Globes and SAG awards did not go on to contend at the Oscars. Amy Adams was the most recent of these also-rans when she was snubbed in the Best Actress race for her heartbreaking performance in “Arrival.”
This year, 15 folks are fearful that they will be the next to suffer this fate. Let’s take a closer look at the eight lead and seven supporting players who reaped bids with all three of these precursor prizes. How likely are they to number among the 20 performers who earn Academy Awards nominations on Jan. 23?
Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me By Your Name” (Drama at Globes)
James Franco, “The Disaster Artist” (Comedy/Musical at Globes)
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out” (Comedy/Musical at Globes)
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour” (Drama at Globes)
Oldman and Chalemet are the top two contenders according to our Oscar experts while Franco is in fourth and Kaluuya is in fifth. Our number three contender — Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread”) — reaped Globe and Critics’ Choice bids but was snubbed by SAG.
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water” (Drama at Globes)
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Drama at Globes)
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya” (Comedy/Musical at Globes)
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird” (Comedy/Musical at Globes)
All four number among our top five Oscar contenders, as does Meryl Streep (“The Post), who contends at the Globe and Critics’ Choice awards but not SAG.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Dafoe and Rockwell are jockeying for first place according to our Oscar experts while Jenkins just makes the top. “Call Me By Your Name” featured players Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg are in third and fourth respectively; both were snubbed by SAG while Stuhlbarg was also overlooked by the Globes.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Hong Chau, “Downsizing”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Metcalf is the clear Oscar frontrunner say our experts while Janney is a strong second. Blige is back in fourth while Chau is ranked sixth. Holly Hunter (“The Big Sick”), who was snubbed by the Globes, sits in third while Octavia Spencer (“The Shape of Water”), who was left off the SAG roster is fifth.
Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives and top name stars can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.