Following the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes, three films appear to be out front to win Best Picture at the Oscars: “The Shape of Water,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri” and “Lady Bird.” However, might underdog “Get Out” end up taking them all down on Oscar night? Gold Derby’s editorial team — Tom O’Neil, Paul Sheehan, Chris Beachum, Daniel Montgomery, Marcus James Dixon and Joyce Eng — debates this and other hot topics in our latest Oscar predictions slugfest. Watch the video above or listen to the audio podcast below.
“‘The Shape of Water’ now looks like it could actually win Best Picture,” asserts O’Neil. “The Critics’ Choice Awards in general have more than 50% predicted the winner of Best Picture. And suddenly, ‘Three Billboards’ is now of course a viable contender to win after winning the Globe because after all ‘Moonlight’ won the Globe last year.”
“‘Three Billboards’ is definitely the strongest right now,” Eng explains. “It won four Globes and it’s hitting everywhere it needs to in the industry. ‘The Shape of Water’ got a boost with the Critics’ Choice win, but there have been so many winners at Critics’ Choice that did not match with Oscar. They sometimes just pick the most nominated picture, and they don’t use a preferential ballot either.”
Dixon, who’s going out on a limb for “Get Out” in his SAG predictions, thinks that Jordan Peele‘s horror/comedy could win Best Picture at the Oscars. “‘Get Out’ is one of the few films to get a SAG nomination, DGA, PGA and WGA, so all of the guilds are embracing this film,” he says.
However, Beachum wonders if the prefertnial ballot might hurt “Get Out” at the Oscars. “I think it’s either your favorite movie of the year, or in a group of eight or nine on the ballot, it’s your fifth or sixth or seventh or eighth. I don’t see a ‘Shape of Water’ person necessarily going ‘Shape of Water’ one, ‘Get Out’ two.”
“I wouldn’t rule out ‘Shape of Water’ vs. ‘Three Billboards,'” Sheehan notes, reminding us of all the guild awards nominations. “‘Shape of Water’ is the only film this year that’s been recognized by all of the guilds so far — it’s gone 11 for 11.” To compare, “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “Three Billboards” and “Dunkirk” are all in second place with eight guilds nominating them.
See Tom O’Neil’s Oscar predictions right here, Paul Sheehan’s right here, Chris Beachum’s right here, Daniel Montgomery’s right here, Marcus James Dixon’s right here and Joyce Eng’s right here. When all of Gold Derby editors’ predictions are combined, these racetrack odds are created.
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Be sure to check out how our experts rank Oscar contenders in this and the other top races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories. Then take a look at the most up-to-date odds before you make make your Oscar nomination predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.