If our combined Oscar odds are correct, the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress categories will be dominated by the stars of three films: Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf of “Lady Bird”; Margot Robbie and Allison Janney of “I, Tonya”; and Sally Hawkins and Octavia Spencer of “The Shape of Water.” And if one pair of co-stars wins, it’d be the 11th time both actress awards went to the same film.
The best chance of this happening is with Ronan and Metcalf. The former sits in second place in lead, behind “Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing Missouri” star Frances McDormand, with 7/2 odds, while her onscreen mother is the favorite in supporting with 11/5 odds.
But after defeating Metcalf at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice, Janney is watching her stock rise quickly. She stands at 5/2 odds, while her onscreen daughter, Robbie, is in fifth in lead with 8/1 odds.
Meanwhile, Hawkins is in third with 4/1 odds and Spencer, who got a boost with her BAFTA nomination after a Screen Actors Guild snub, is clinging onto the fifth supporting slot with 10/1 odds.
This actress-supporting actress sweep has occurred only 10 times before, spanning 60 years, and hasn’t happened in 19 years. We almost got it six years ago, when Spencer won for “The Help,” but Viola Davis was nipped in lead by Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”). The previous instances, with their respective lead and supporting winners, were:
1. “Jezebel” (1938): Bette Davis and Fay Bainter
2. “Gone with the Wind” (1939): Vivien Leigh and Hattie McDaniel
3. “Mrs. Miniver” (1942): Greer Garson and Teresa Wright
4. “A Streetcar Named Desire” (1951): Vivien Leigh and Kim Hunter
5. “The Miracle Worker” (1962): Anne Bancroft and Patty Duke
6. “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” (1966): Elizabeth Taylor and Sandy Dennis
7. “Network” (1976): Faye Dunaway and Beatrice Straight
8. “Moonstruck” (1987): Cher and Olympia Dukakis
9. “The Piano” (1993): Holly Hunter and Anna Paquin
10. “Shakespeare in Love” (1998): Gwyneth Paltrow and Judi Dench
Two of these pairs — Cher and Dukakis, and Hunter and Paquin — won for playing parent and child, so Ronan and Metcalf or Robbie and Janney could also be the third Oscar-winning mother-daughter dynamic duo.
Be sure to check out how our experts rank Oscar contenders in this and the other top races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories. Then take a look at the most up-to-date odds before you make make your Oscar nomination predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.