2018 Oscars Best Picture predictions: Experts still divided on eve of Critics’ Choice Awards

With the Critics’ Choice Awards just hours away, our 29 Oscar experts from major media outlets are hoping to get guidance from these key precursor prizes as to what will win Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Their votes remain split between seven films, with five of these far out front of the other two.

Christopher Nolan‘s WWII epic “Dunkirk” and Jordan Peele‘s social satire “Get Out” each get the votes of a leading six of our pundits. However, the rest of them are ranking these films low enough on their lists that they sit only in second on our Best Picture chart, with odds of 15/2 to take the top Academy Award. (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.)

In first place is Greta Gerwig‘s coming-of-age charmer “Lady Bird,” which did well at the Golden Globes on Sunday, winning both Best Comedy/Musical and for leading lady Saoirse Ronan. While it has the votes of only five experts, the rest of our prognosticators are ranking it highly enough that is has leading odds of 13/2 to win Best Picture.

With four votes apiece, two other films are tied for second place: Steven Spielberg‘s docudrama “The Post” and Martin McDonagh‘s character study “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” . While “The Post” lost one vote after being shut out of the Globes, “Three Billboards” picked up two after sweeping these awards handed out by the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn.

Three of our experts are now taken with Guillermo del Toro‘s fantasy “The Shape of Water,” which reaped a leading 12 BAFTA Awards nominations on Tuesday while one remains enamored with Luca Guadagnino‘s romance “Call Me By Your Name,” which was the big winner at LAFCA.

See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Oscar Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the top 10 contenders to win:

1. “Lady Bird”: Five experts (13/2 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Joyce Eng (Gold Derby)
Chris Rosen (EW)
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times

2. “Dunkirk”: Six experts (15/2 odds)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Dave Karger (IMDB)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly)

2. “Get Out”: Six experts (15/2 odds)
Edward Douglas
Grae Drake (Rotten Tomatoes)
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)

2. “The Post”: Four experts (15/2 odds)
Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)

2. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: Two experts (15/2 odds)
Kyle Buchanan (New York)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)

6. “The Shape of Water”: Two experts (17/2 odds)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Andrea Mandell (USA Today)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)

7. “Call Me By Your Name”: One expert (10/1 odds)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)

8. “Darkest Hour”: One expert (22/1 odds)

8. “The Florida Project”: (22/1 odds)

10. “Mudbound”: (25/1 odds)

2018 Oscars Best Picture: Experts Predictions

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions

More News from GoldDerby