2018 Oscars Best Picture predictions by experts: ‘Three Billboards’ moves into lead as Academy Awards nominations voting ends

Voting for the Academy Awards nominations ended last Friday (Jan. 12) and our 29 Oscar experts from major media outlets spent the holiday weekend updating their predictions for Best Picture. While their votes remain split between seven films, five of these are far out front of the other two.

Martin McDonagh‘s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” swept the Golden Globes on Jan. 7 and got another bounce when the writer/director reaped a bid from the DGA on Jan. 11. This character study now has the backing of six experts (up from just two before the HFPA prizefest) and is in first place with leading odds of 13/2.

Jordan Peele‘s social satire “Get Out” also has votes of six pundits. However, the rest of them are ranking it low enough on their lists that it sits only in third on our Best Picture chart, with odds of 15/2 to take the top Academy Award. (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.)

In second place is Greta Gerwig‘s coming-of-age charmer “Lady Bird,” which did well at the Golden Globes, winning both Best Comedy/Musical and for leading lady Saoirse Ronan. While it has the votes of only five experts, the rest of our prognosticators are ranking it highly enough that is has odds of 13/2 to win Best Picture.

Tied with “Get Out” in third is Guillermo del Toro‘s fantasy “The Shape of Water,” which dominated the Critics’ Choice Awards on Jan. 11. It too has five votes. Christopher Nolan‘s WWII epic “Dunkirk,” which led this race for much of awards season, has fallen to fifth place and now has three votes and odds of only 8/1. That ties it with Steven Spielberg‘s docudrama “The Post,” which has four experts still backing it. And one expert remains enamored with Luca Guadagnino‘s romance “Call Me By Your Name.”

See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Oscar Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the top 10 contenders to win:


1. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: Six experts (13/2 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Kyle Buchanan (New York)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)

2. “Lady Bird”: Four experts (7/1 odds)
Joyce Eng (Gold Derby)
Chris Rosen (EW)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times

3. “Get Out”: Six experts (15/2 odds)
Edward Douglas
Grae Drake (Rotten Tomatoes)
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)

3. “The Shape of Water”: Five experts (15/2 odds)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Andrea Mandell (USA Today)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)

5. “Dunkirk”: Three experts (15/2 odds)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Dave Karger (IMDB)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)

5. “The Post”: Four experts (15/2 odds)
Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)

7. “Call Me By Your Name”: One expert (10/1 odds)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)

8. “Darkest Hour”: One expert (22/1 odds)

8. “The Florida Project”: (22/1 odds)

10. “Mudbound”: (25/1 odds)

2018 Oscars Best Picture: Experts Predictions

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Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

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