2018 Oscars Best Picture predictions by experts: ‘Three Billboards’ widens lead on eve of PGA Awards

With only days to go until the Academy Awards are announced on Jan. 23, our 31 Oscar experts from major media outlets have been busy updating their predictions for Best Picture. Martin McDonagh‘s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” now has the votes of a leading seven pundits. This character study swept the Golden Globes on Jan. 7 and got another bounce when the writer/director reaped a bid from the DGA on Jan. 11. It is in first place with leading odds of 13/2.

If, as we are predicting, “Three Billboards” wins Best Picture at the PGA Awards on Jan. 20, expect even more of our experts to switch to it. While that precursor prize went with a different film than the Oscars for the last two years, this guild previewed the Best Picture winner for the first six years of the expanded race.T o that end, if another film pulls off an upset at the PGA, look for more of our pundits to pick it to prevail at the Oscars. (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.)

Indeed, Greta Gerwig‘s coming-of-age charmer “Lady Bird” could well be the PGA winner. After all, it did well at the Golden Globes, winning both Best Comedy/Musical and for leading lady Saoirse Ronan. While it has the votes of only five experts, the rest of our prognosticators are ranking it highly enough that also has odds of 13/2 to win Best Picture.

Sitting in second is Guillermo del Toro‘s fantasy “The Shape of Water,” which dominated the Critics’ Choice Awards on Jan. 11, and has the votes of six experts. That support gives it odd of 7/1 to win.

Jordan Peele‘s social satire “Get Out” also has the votes of five pundits. However, the rest of them are ranking it low enough on their lists that it sits only in third on our Best Picture chart, with odds of 15/2 to take the top Academy Award.

Tied with “Get Out” are two other films. Christopher Nolan‘s WWII epic “Dunkirk,” which led this race for much of awards season, now has just three votes and odds of only 8/1 while Steven Spielberg‘s docudrama “The Post” has four experts still backing it. One expert remains enamored with Luca Guadagnino‘s romance “Call Me By Your Name.”

See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Oscar Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the top 10 contenders to win:


1. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: Seven experts (13/2 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Grae Drake (Rotten Tomatoes)
Kyle Buchanan (New York)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)

1. “Lady Bird”: Five experts (13/2 odds)
Joyce Eng (Gold Derby)
Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair)
Chris Rosen (EW)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times

3. “The Shape of Water”: Six experts (7/1 odds)
Pete Hammond (Deadline)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Andrea Mandell (USA Today)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)

4. “Get Out”: Five experts (15/2 odds)
Edward Douglas
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)

4. “Dunkirk”: Three experts (15/2 odds)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Dave Karger (IMDB)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)

4. “The Post”: Four experts (15/2 odds)
Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)

7. “Call Me By Your Name”: One expert (10/1 odds)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)

8. “Darkest Hour”: One expert (22/1 odds)

8. “The Florida Project”: (22/1 odds)

10. “Mudbound”: (25/1 odds)

2018 Oscars Best Picture: Experts Predictions

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Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

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