Exactly half of our 30 Oscar experts from major media outlets are predicting that Allison Janney will win Best Supporting Actress for her showy role in “I, Tonya” as the foul-mouthed, chain-smoking mother of disgraced Olympic hopeful Tonya Harding (Margot Robbie). The seven-time Emmy champ (two of those wins were for her current featured role on the comedy “Mom”) has odds of 5/2 to prevail with her first Academy Awards nomination.
With her wins at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, Janney edged past long-time frontrunner Laurie Metcalf for her scene-stealing turn as a hardworking nurse at odds with her headstrong daughter (Saoirse Ronan) in “Lady Bird.” This recent Tony Awards champ (“A Dolls House Part 2”) now has the votes of 14 experts and odds of 12/5. This TV favorite won Best Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmys three years running for “Roseanne” beginning in 1992.
In third place is 1993 Best Actress winner Holly Hunter (“The Piano”) for her critically acclaimed performance as an overbearing mother in “The Big Sick.” This four-time Oscar nominee has two experts in her corner and odds of 13/2 to finally pick up an Academy Awards bookend.
Grammy champ Mary J. Blige is all but unrecognizable in “Mudbound” and has the backing of one expert and odds of 8/1.
Also hoping for a second Oscar is past category winner Octavia Spencer for her supporting role as a supportive friend in “The Shape of Water” with odds of 14/1. She won this award in 2011 for “The Help” and vied here last year for “Hidden Figures.”
Below we break down the Oscar Best Supporting Actress predictions by expert and include the most up-to-date odds for each of the top 10 contenders to win. And be sure to check out how our experts rank Oscar contenders in the other top races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”: 14 experts (12/5 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Edward Douglas (Tracking Board)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Dave Karger (IMDB)
Andrea Mandell (USA Today)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)
Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times)
Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)
2. Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”: 15 experts (5/2 odds)
Kyle Buchanan (Vulture)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Grae Drake (Rotten Tomatoes)
Joyce Eng (TV Guide)
Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)
Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)
3. Holly Hunter, “The Big Sick”: One expert (13/2 odds)
4. Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound” (8/1 odds)
Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life)
5. Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”: (10/1 odds)
6 Melissa Leo, “Novitiate”: (14/1 odds)
7. Kristin Scott Thomas, “Darkest Hour”: (22/1 odds)
8. Hong Chau, “Downsizing”: (50/1 odds)
9. Michelle William, “The Greatest Showman”: (60/1 odds)
10. Claire Foy, “Breathe” (80/1 odds)
Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.