The Producers Guild of America Awards announced its 11 nominees for Best Picture on Friday: “The Big Sick,” “Call Me By Your Name,” “Dunkirk,” “Get Out,” “I, Tonya,” “Lady Bird,” “Molly’s Game,” “The Post,” “The Shape Of Water,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” and “Wonder Woman.” A tie in voting meant that the usual PGA top 10 list expanded by one.
Seven of these 11 films number among those we are predicting will be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. The exceptions are the comedy “The Big Sick,” which we have in 11th place, and three movies that currently have odds of 100/1: the character studies “I, Tonya” and “Molly’s Game” and the blockbuster “Wonder Woman.”
Expect all four of these films to rise in the ranks in the coming days given the success rate of the guild in previewing the eventual Oscar nominees. Conversely, the bottom three contenders in our current Oscar top 10 roster — “The Florida Project,” “Darkest Hour” and “Mudbound” — might well fall out of the predicted line-up.
When the Oscars expanded to 10 nominees in 2009, the Producers Guild of America followed suit. But while the academy shifted to a sliding scale in 2011, the PGA has stuck with 10 contenders. That leeway has helped it maintain a staggering success rate at previewing the eventual Oscars roster. Indeed, the guild has predicted 63 of the 72 (i.e., 87.5%) Best Picture nominees over the past eight years.
The PGA also revealed the five nominees for Best Animated Feature: “The Boss Baby,” “Coco,” “Despicable Me 3,” “Ferdinand,” and “The Lego Batman Movie.” This is different from our predicted line-up of Oscar nominees as we’re betting on the critically acclaimed indies “The Breadwinner” and “Loving Vincent” to replace “The Boss Baby” and “Despicable Me 3″ at the Oscars.
PGA Awards winners will be revealed during a Jan. 20 ceremony at the Beverly Hilton Hotel.
Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.