2018 Producers Guild Awards nominations preview: Oscar Best Picture line-up?

What can we expect when the Producers Guild of America announces its nominees for Best Picture on Friday (Jan. 4)? How closely will the guild’s top 10 preview the Academy Awards line-up that will be revealed on Jan. 23?

When the Oscars expanded to 10 nominees in 2009, the Producers Guild of America followed suit. But while the academy shifted to a sliding scale in 2011, the PGA has stuck with 10 contenders. That leeway has helped it maintain a staggering success rate at previewing the eventual Oscars roster. Indeed, the guild has predicted 63 of the 72 (i.e., 87.5%) of the Best Picture nominees over the past eight years.

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Last year, the PGA previewed all nine of the Oscar nominees: “Arrival,” “Fences,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “Hell or High Water,” “Hidden Figures.” “La La Land,” “Lion,” “Manchester by the Sea” and “Moonlight.” The 10th nominee with the guild was the blockbuster “Deadpool.”

In 2015, the guild foresaw seven of the eight Oscar contenders: “The Big Short,” “Bridge of Spies,” “Brooklyn,” “Mad Max; Fury Road,” “The Martian,” “The Revenant” and “Spotlight.” It missed “Room,” opting instead for “Ex Machina,” “Sicario” and “Straight Outta Compton.” While “The Big Short” won over the producers, academy voters opted for “Spotlight.”

Likewise, in 2014, the PGA went seven for eight: “American Sniper,” “Boyhood,” “Birdman,” “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” “The Imitation Game,” “The Theory of Everything” and “Whiplash.” It went with “Foxcatcher,” “Gone Girl” and “Nightcrawler” over eventual Oscar nominee “Selma.” “Birdman” was the top pick for best pic with both groups.

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In 2013, eight of the PGA nominees made the cut with academy: eventual Best Picture winner “12 Years a Slave,” as well as “Gravity” (which had tied with it at the PGA), “American Hustle,” “Captain Phillips,”  “Dallas Buyers Club” “Her,” “Nebraska,” and “The Wolf of Wall Street.” The other two PGA contenders — “Blue Jasmine” and “Saving Mr. Banks” — were snubbed by the academy. Rather, Brit hit “Philomena” was the ninth Oscar nominee.

In 2012, eight PGA nominees also reaped bids for the top Academy Award — “Argo,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “Django Unchained,” “Life of Pi,” “Lincoln,” “Les Miserables,” “Silver Linings Playbook” and “Zero Dark Thirty.” Rounding out the roster at the PGA were “Moonrise Kingdom” and “Skyfall.” The guild snubbed the French-language “Amour,” which netted a Best Picture nod from the academy. “Argo” prevailed with the PGA before taking home the Oscar.

In 2011, the PGA predicted seven of the eventual nine Best Picture contenders, including “The Artist” which won with both groups. The PGA filled out their slate with popular pictures “Bridesmaids,” “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” and “The Ides of March” while the Oscars went with “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” and “The Tree of Life.”

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In 2010, the PGA previewed nine of the eventual 10 Best Picture Oscar nominees. The guild went for “The Town” while the academy opted for “Winter’s Bone” for the tenth slot. Both groups chose “The King’s Speech” as the Best Picture of the year.

And in 2009, the Oscars concurred with the PGA on eight of the 10 contenders. PGA nominated “Invictus” and “Star Trek” over Oscar choices “The Blind Side” and “A Serious Man.” Both groups picked as best pic “The Hurt Locker.”

The PGA champ will be crowned on Jan. 20, three days before Oscar nominations are announced. The PGA uses the same system as the Oscars — the preferential ballot — for the final vote. Prior to the splits of the last two years, the previous eight most recent winners of the PGA prize also won Best Picture. Indeed, the guild and academy have agreed on 19 of the most recent 28 Best Picture champs.

Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

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