Oscars Best Picture race: ‘A Star is Born’ still ahead of ‘Roma,’ but watch out for ‘Green Book’ say experts

Heading into Thanksgiving, “A Star is Born” maintains its lead over “Roma” in the Best Picture race according to the predictions of the 30 Oscar Experts at Gold Derby by a vote of 18 to 5. But watch out for “Green Book,” which now has the backing of five pundits (that’s up from just one at the beginning of the month). “The Favourite” and “Vice” have one Oscarologist apiece in their corner.  [See the most up-to-date Best Picture rankings by our 30 Experts.]

While “A Star is Born” still has a clear edge for first-place votes from the experts, it is only just ahead of “Roma” and “Green Book” on our Best Picture odds chart. It leads with odds of 13/2 to take home the top Academy Award while the other two are just behind at 15/2. This discrepancy is down to the relative rankings of these three films by all of the experts, including those that don’t have them in first place.  [See the latest racetrack odds.]

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“A Star is Born” and “Roma” had been trading off first place in the weeks after they screened at the Venice film festival. They displaced early frontrunner Spike Lee‘s “BlacKkKlansman,” which is now down in eighth spot. Buoyed by its popular choice wins at the Toronto and Middleburg film festivals “Green Book” is now tied for second.

While “First Man” has lost its first-place votes, it continues to be ranked high enough to be tied with critics darlings “The Favourite” and “If Beale Street Could Talk” at 10/1 odds. “Black Panther” remains in seventh place at 23/2. Rounding out the top 10 are Adam McKay‘s “Vice” (18/1) and Steve McQueen‘s “Widows” (25/1).

The 18 Experts touting “A Star is Born” are: Ed Douglas (Weekend Warrior),  Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Tim Gray (Variety), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Dave Karger (IMDb), Susan King (Gold Derby), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Wilson Morales (Black Film), Perri Nemiroff (Collider), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Chris Rosen (Radio.com), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby).

The five Experts rooting for “Roma” are: Erik Davis (Fandango), Alicia Malone (TCM), Andrea Mandell (USA Today), Claudia Puig (KPCC) and Anne Thompson (Indiewire).

The five for “Green Book” are: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Grae Drake (Rotten Tomatoes), Scott Mantz (Collider), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby) and Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere).

Tariq Khan (Fox TV) picks “The Favourite” and Michael Musto (NewNowNext) opts for “Vice.”

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Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on January 22.

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