Breaking down the precursor awards — both nominations and winners — as well as the top Oscar nominations by categories gives us 35 key races that will determine the strongest films at the Academy Awards. Different films will have different strengths: some will do well with acting, others with writing and directing and some will pop up here and there. To be a leading Oscar contender, a film needs to be represented across a range of races.
The first round was the announcement of the Golden Globes nominations on Dec. 6. Here are the results:
“Vice” and “Green Book” are the big winners in this first stage. They were the only two films to get ticks in all four possible Golden Globe nominations boxes with bids for Best Picture (both in the Comedy/Musical category), Best Director (Adam McKay for “Vice,” Peter Farrelly for “Green Book”), Best Screenplay and in at least one acting category. “Vice” earned three while “Green Book” achieved two.
Conversely, “First Man” managed just one tick – the nomination for Claire Foy in the Best Supporting Actress category. Damien Chazelle was unexpectedly snubbed in the Director and Screenplay categories while the film missed out on a Best Picture bid and leading man Ryan Gosling was also ignored.
“The Favourite,” “If Beale Street Could Talk” and “BlacKkKlansman” each earned three ticks. While “The Favourite” helmer Yorgos Lanthimos was snubbed his film scored nominations for Screenplay, Best Picture and acting. “Beale Street” earned the same trio of ticks. “BlacKkKlansman” overperformed with nominations for Director (Spike Lee), Picture and both Adam Driver (Best Supporting Actor) and John David Washington (Best Actor in a Drama).
The next round comes on Dec. 10 with the Critics Choice nominations. See you then.
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on January 22.